Wasatch Soccer Sentinel10 of 12 sites published for the final week.
As always, if you know of a site I have not used please let me know in the comments and I’ll look into adding it for next season!
Sites Used
- Jeff Sagarin
- Five Thirty Eight (Proj. points)
- Who Scored
- ESPN
- Massey
- Soccer America
- MLS
- Sonny Moore Rankings
- Freeborg Power Index
- MLS Multiplex
- 3rd Degree (usually posts after I do)
- US Soccer Players - (monthly)
You may notice the list includes several ‘analytic’ sites; they serve to function as a stable counterbalance or ‘control group’ to the rest which are based more on personal opinions, and those done by ‘group rankers’. There are also sites included that some will argue are ‘prediction rankings’ - but that also is a form of Power Ranking is (see the quote at the top) since it uses algorithms to calculate a team’s likely final position.
All the averages use the Olympic method (I.E. Truncated Mean value) of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and then averaging the rest to reduce bias.
| Place | Team | Wk 33 | Wk 34 | Wk Best | Wk Worst | Std. Dev | 2022 Avg | 5-yr avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Atlanta United FC | 20.67 | 20.86 | 10 | 25 | 4.46 | 17.6 | 11.0832 |
| 5 | Austin FC | 5.22 | 6.14 | 5 | 17 | 4.02 | 7.2 | 12.992 |
| 23 | Charlotte FC | 20 | 21.71 | 16 | 27 | 3.61 | 22.8 | 14.784 |
| 24 | Chicago Fire | 23.56 | 22.71 | 17 | 24 | 2.17 | 20.7 | 19.678 |
| 10 | Cincinnati (FC) | 11.11 | 9.57 | 7 | 13 | 1.87 | 17.5 | 19.634 |
| 18 | Colorado Rapids | 20.44 | 18.71 | 14 | 22 | 2.65 | 16 | 15.666 |
| 12 | Columbus Crew SC | 8.89 | 12.71 | 4 | 16 | 3.76 | 11.3 | 10.859 |
| 28 | D.C. United | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 0 | 24.5 | 17.176 |
| 6 | Dallas (FC) | 5.89 | 6.29 | 4 | 16 | 3.82 | 8.5 | 11.1342 |
| 26 | Houston Dynamo | 24.56 | 25.43 | 24 | 27 | 0.88 | 22 | 17.22 |
| 15 | Inter Miami CF | 14 | 15.14 | 11 | 21 | 3.91 | 21.3 | 17.622 |
| 9 | L.A. Galaxy | 10.33 | 8.57 | 6 | 12 | 2.06 | 9.8 | 11.408 |
| 2 | Los Angeles FC | 1.56 | 1.71 | 1 | 3 | 0.67 | 2 | 5.5268 |
| 11 | Minnesota United FC | 15.22 | 12.14 | 7 | 17 | 2.93 | 11 | 12.076 |
| 3 | Montreal (CF) | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 3.06 | 10.2 | 14.52 |
| 7 | Nashville SC | 8.11 | 6.86 | 4 | 10 | 1.96 | 8.7 | 11.874 |
| 17 | New England Revolution | 20 | 18.29 | 6 | 23 | 4.77 | 14.7 | 12.164 |
| 4 | New York City FC | 6.33 | 4.86 | 3 | 10 | 2.11 | 6.6 | 6.5156 |
| 8 | New York RB | 7.11 | 7.29 | 5 | 10 | 1.58 | 6.4 | 9.5228 |
| 16 | Orlando City SC | 14.11 | 15.86 | 13 | 23 | 3.87 | 13.5 | 13.312 |
| 1 | Philadelphia Union | 1.44 | 1.29 | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 6.902 |
| 14 | Portland Timbers | 11.67 | 14 | 7 | 16 | 2.79 | 13.8 | 11.134 |
| 13 | Real Salt Lake | 14.44 | 13 | 9 | 15 | 1.79 | 10.8 | 13.31 |
| 25 | San Jose Earthquakes | 25 | 24.43 | 19 | 26 | 2.65 | 23.8 | 18.838 |
| 19 | Seattle Sounders FC | 19.44 | 19.43 | 12 | 23 | 3.91 | 13.9 | 7.384 |
| 22 | Sporting Kansas City | 20.22 | 21.14 | 16 | 26 | 3.14 | 23.5 | 10.9248 |
| 27 | Toronto FC | 25.67 | 26.43 | 20 | 27 | 2.54 | 21.7 | 14.724 |
| 20 | Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 18.56 | 20.14 | 16 | 25 | 3.49 | 22.6 | 19.364 |
- Highest Standard Deviation: Toronto FC at 3.77
- Lowest Standard Deviation: FC Cincinnati at 0.0
- Biggest Rise: +4 Sporting Kansas City
- Biggest Fall: -6 Orlando City
Site Bias
All sites are going to have bias, whether conscious (blogs) or due to analytic calculation (based on past performance). This section lets you see the extent that sites are biased for/against teams. Negative totals (-) are bias FOR, positive numbers (+) are bias AGAINST.
| Team / Site | AVG | Jeff Sagarin | 538 | Who Scored | ESPN | Massey | Soc. Amer | MLS | Sonny Moore | Freeborg | MLS Multiplex | 3rd deg. | US Soc. Players | AVG | Team / Site |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta United FC | 15.5 | -0.5 | -0.97 | 1.57 | 2.83 | 1.9 | 0.28 | 2.19 | -1.87 | 5.67 | 1.81 | 5.64 | 1.1 | 15.5 | ATL |
| Chicago Fire | 18.66 | -0.47 | -0.59 | -3.66 | 1.09 | 1.01 | 2.9 | 1.34 | 4.59 | 0.26 | 2.84 | 3.34 | 3.94 | 18.66 | CHI |
| Colorado Rapids | 14.04 | -0.48 | 1.83 | -5.51 | 1.04 | -0.24 | 1.74 | 1.59 | 4.4 | -2.87 | 3.65 | 2.25 | 3.96 | 14.04 | COL |
| Columbus Crew SC | 4.71 | 4.42 | -0.98 | 0.89 | -0.21 | 0.09 | -2.04 | -1.08 | 4.42 | 1.71 | -1.27 | 1.86 | 0.29 | 4.71 | CLB |
| D.C. United | 20.48 | 0.58 | 3.59 | -0.68 | 0.69 | 2.32 | 0.96 | 3.02 | -0.98 | 2.52 | 0.21 | 4.38 | 1.32 | 20.48 | DCU |
| FC Cincinnati | 22.34 | 2.72 | 3.06 | 1.86 | 1.99 | 1.33 | -1.45 | 0.97 | 1.79 | 0.41 | 0.72 | -0.91 | -0.14 | 22.34 | CIN |
| FC Dallas | 9.94 | -1.25 | -0.01 | -2.94 | 2.39 | 0.13 | 0.62 | 1.75 | -2.94 | -0.27 | 4.44 | 2.77 | 5.06 | 9.94 | FCD |
| Houston Dynamo | 17.46 | 0.79 | 2.67 | 0.47 | 0.29 | -2.26 | 2.21 | 2.29 | -1.77 | -0.79 | 1.79 | 2.25 | -0.06 | 17.46 | HOU |
| Inter Miami CF | 6.51 | 4.86 | -0.02 | -0.42 | 2.36 | -0.22 | 2.55 | 1.74 | -6.89 | -2.72 | 4.24 | 2.68 | 2.11 | 6.51 | MIA |
| Los Angeles FC | 15.67 | -1.88 | -1.98 | 1.96 | 2.99 | 0.89 | -0.4 | 1.24 | -2.95 | 9.07 | 1.68 | 1.35 | -1.11 | 15.67 | LAFC |
| L.A. Galaxy | 6.86 | 1.77 | -1.67 | -4.4 | 0.83 | 2.13 | -2.34 | 2.21 | 0.46 | 4.33 | 1.08 | -3.38 | 0.93 | 6.86 | LAG |
| Minnesota United FC | 15.85 | -1.11 | 2.87 | -4.13 | 3.64 | -1.53 | 0.25 | 2.58 | -0.23 | 2.06 | 1.08 | 0.71 | 1.14 | 15.85 | MUFC |
| Montreal Impact | 12.24 | 2.65 | 2.55 | -1.25 | -0.85 | 2.82 | 0.59 | 1.28 | 5.09 | -1.02 | -0.22 | -0.56 | -0.65 | 12.24 | MTL |
| Nashville SC | 9.15 | 1.56 | 1.85 | 2.18 | -0.82 | -2.95 | 3.18 | -0.38 | 0.06 | 0.43 | 1.99 | 2.89 | 1.38 | 9.15 | NASH |
| N.E. Revolution | 13.88 | 4.45 | 1.43 | 0.36 | -2.41 | 1.76 | -0.24 | -0.11 | 3.32 | -1.41 | -0.8 | 1.76 | -1.84 | 13.88 | NER |
| New York City FC | 7.92 | -0.65 | 0.78 | 3.52 | 0.68 | -0.68 | 4.96 | -0.15 | -1.15 | -2.48 | 1.66 | -1.86 | -0.95 | 7.92 | NYFC |
| New York RB | 13.88 | 1.12 | 0.59 | -1.28 | -0.46 | 2.52 | 1.34 | 1.18 | 1.81 | 1.95 | -0.82 | 6.12 | 5.32 | 13.88 | NYRB |
| Orlando City SC | 7.92 | -0.29 | 2.35 | 5.21 | -0.92 | -2.85 | 1.64 | 0.14 | 1.64 | -2.75 | -0.11 | 0.37 | 1.08 | 7.92 | ORL |
| Philadelphia Union | 3.86 | -0.61 | -0.86 | 3.94 | 0.22 | -0.73 | 0.92 | -0.3 | -0.8 | -1.94 | 0.77 | 1.85 | 1.74 | 3.86 | PHI |
| Portland Timbers | 7.53 | -0.97 | 2.2 | 8.8 | 0.64 | -3.53 | 1.03 | -1.28 | 1.72 | 4.72 | -0.9 | -4.39 | -1.13 | 7.53 | POR |
| Real Salt Lake | 15.16 | -1.41 | 1.04 | 1.64 | 3.34 | 2.91 | 0.62 | 0.65 | -1.1 | 1.17 | 1.47 | 0.41 | 1.04 | 15.16 | RSL |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 17.05 | 0.01 | 0.28 | 8.08 | 0.62 | 2.82 | -0.27 | 1.08 | 2.95 | 2.78 | 0.2 | -1.62 | -4.25 | 17.05 | SJE |
| Seattle Sounders FC | 4.1 | -0.79 | 0.9 | -0.17 | 0.23 | 3.57 | 0.23 | -0.6 | -0.97 | 1.98 | 0.34 | -1.24 | -0.1 | 4.1 | SEA |
| Sporting Kansas City | 7.64 | 3.74 | -0.51 | -0.17 | 1.86 | 1.83 | 1.25 | 0.17 | 4.74 | -0.22 | -1.51 | -0.21 | -0.64 | 7.64 | SKC |
| Toronto FC | 4.42 | 1.46 | -1.55 | 3.05 | -0.75 | 4.45 | -0.75 | -1.48 | 2.58 | -0.17 | -1.79 | -2.42 | 4.18 | 4.42 | TFC |
| Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 21.04 | 1.59 | 2.43 | 2.36 | 0.04 | 3.89 | 1.4 | 1.27 | 3.4 | -1.12 | -1.23 | -2.75 | -2.64 | 21.04 | VAN |
| X Team / Site | AVG | Sagarin | 538 | Who Scored | ESPN | Massey | Soc. Amer | MLS | Sonny Moore | Freeborg | MLS Multiplex | 3rd deg. | US Soc. Players | AVG | Team / Site |
2020 Final Averages
Annual averages going back to 2012. For teams that started after that date the total average for the league is used to give 5 years of data to level the skew. League averages will be removed each year to keep teams at 5 years.
| TEAM | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | Tot Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta United FC | 10.5 | 6.46 | 2.266 | 7.13 | 15.5 | 8.37 | ||||
| Chicago Fire | 7.91 | 14.35 | 15.54 | 17.71 | 18.8 | 7.95 | 17.65 | 18.02 | 18.66 | 15.18 |
| Colorado Rapids | 12.85 | 9.88 | 11.54 | 17.38 | 5.25 | 18.35 | 20.69 | 20.18 | 14.04 | 14.46 |
| Columbus Crew SC | 11.7 | 12.81 | 9.6 | 8.75 | 16.31 | 11.27 | 7.875 | 16.72 | 4.71 | 11.08 |
| D.C. United | 7.45 | 17.24 | 7.49 | 5.91 | 13.91 | 18.79 | 16.74 | 8.1 | 20.48 | 12.9 |
| FC Cincinnati | 10.5 | 11.47 | 11.96 | 21.21 | 22.34 | 15.5 | ||||
| FC Dallas | 12.88 | 8.58 | 6.35 | 4.64 | 2.73 | 6.07 | 7.081 | 10.26 | 9.94 | 7.61 |
| Houston Dynamo | 6.75 | 7.71 | 12.77 | 13.81 | 16.44 | 9.36 | 12.32 | 13.53 | 17.46 | 12.24 |
| Inter Miami CF | 10.5 | 11.47 | 11.96 | 12.5 | 19.89 | 13.26 | ||||
| Los Angeles FC | 10.5 | 11.47 | 5.934 | 1.27 | 6.51 | 7.14 | ||||
| L.A. Galaxy | 8.39 | 5.15 | 5.23 | 4.51 | 3.75 | 15.74 | 12.02 | 8.7 | 15.67 | 8.8 |
| Minnesota United FC | 10.5 | 19.71 | 18.37 | 10.05 | 6.86 | 13.1 | ||||
| Montreal Impact | 13.99 | 5.17 | 17.54 | 15.06 | 7.52 | 14.48 | 16 | 15.22 | 15.85 | 13.43 |
| Nashville SC | 10.5 | 11.47 | 11.96 | 12.5 | 17.82 | 12.85 | ||||
| N.E. Revolution | 14.78 | 12.52 | 9.66 | 9.5 | 15.45 | 15.29 | 13.48 | 17.48 | 12.24 | 13.38 |
| New York City FC | 15.47 | 9.42 | 4.4 | 4.418 | 6.3 | 9.15 | 8.19 | |||
| New York RB | 5.58 | 6.52 | 10.05 | 4.68 | 8.11 | 8.35 | 3.204 | 9.54 | 13.88 | 7.77 |
| Orlando City SC | 14.21 | 13.1 | 13.02 | 18 | 18 | 7.92 | 14.04 | |||
| Philadelphia Union | 15.19 | 10.45 | 11.85 | 18.07 | 8.66 | 16.32 | 13.59 | 7.09 | 3.86 | 11.68 |
| Portland Timbers | 15.88 | 5.83 | 11.64 | 9.45 | 9.78 | 7.3 | 9.17 | 12.09 | 7.53 | 9.85 |
| Real Salt Lake | 3.7 | 4.58 | 4.12 | 12.43 | 7.01 | 17.03 | 13.43 | 12.89 | 15.16 | 10.04 |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 2.61 | 12.38 | 15.2 | 11.14 | 10.94 | 14.18 | 20.14 | 14.54 | 17.05 | 13.13 |
| Seattle Sounders FC | 5.07 | 9.38 | 2.86 | 6.07 | 13.75 | 7.89 | 11.83 | 4.82 | 4.1 | 7.31 |
| Sporting Kansas City | 3.07 | 4.48 | 5.64 | 6.35 | 9.12 | 5.58 | 5.064 | 14.32 | 7.64 | 6.81 |
| Toronto FC | 17.85 | 16.83 | 8.97 | 9.75 | 6.21 | 2.13 | 12.76 | 11.61 | 4.42 | 10.06 |
| Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 8.95 | 10.33 | 7.98 | 5.09 | 13.65 | 12.59 | 13 | 20.96 | 21.04 | 12.62 |
