Wasatch Soccer Sentinel13 of 17 sites updated this week, and some that missed last week managed to get in retroactively, and one ‘dead’ site has returned to life; so last week’s totals and positions have been updated. Los Angeles FC maintain their run in first for the 18th week, and 2nd place changes yet again leaving no one to challenge.
As always, if you know of a site I have not used please let me know in the comments and I’ll look into adding it!
Sites Used
- Jeff Sagarin
- Five Thirty Eight (Proj. points)
- Who Scored
- ESPN
- Massey
- Soccer America
- MLS
- MLS Fantasy Boss - No ranking Wk 20-22
- Reddit MLS
- Dallas News
- Atlanta News Now (Abbr. AJC)
- Big D Soccer (FC Dallas blog, analytic prediction) - No ranking Wk 21-22
- Pro Soccer USA - No ranking Wk 21-22
- Cincinnati Soccer Talk
- Freeborg Power Index
- In On It
- US Soccer Players (Monthly only) - No ranking Wk 22
You may notice the list includes several ‘analytic’ sites; they serve to function as a stable counterbalance or ‘control group’ to the rest which are based more on personal opinions, and those done by ‘team’ blogs. There are also sites included that some will argue are ‘prediction rankings’ - but that also is a form of Power Ranking is (see the quote at the top).
All the averages use the Olympic method (I.E. Truncated Mean value) of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and then averaging the rest to reduce bias.
The 7 year weighted average is the averages that decrease in value over time. Thus 2019 will be worth 100%, 2018 = 90%, 2017 = 80% and so on down. Thus a bad year 4 years ago won’t drag down positive recent years. For expansion teams that don’t have long histories, they are given the overall league average for that year.
| Place | Team | Wk 33 | Wk 34 | Wk Best | Wk Worst | Std. Dev | 2022 Avg | 5-yr avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Atlanta United FC | 20.67 | 20.86 | 10 | 25 | 4.46 | 17.6 | 11.0832 |
| 5 | Austin FC | 5.22 | 6.14 | 5 | 17 | 4.02 | 7.2 | 12.992 |
| 23 | Charlotte FC | 20 | 21.71 | 16 | 27 | 3.61 | 22.8 | 14.784 |
| 24 | Chicago Fire | 23.56 | 22.71 | 17 | 24 | 2.17 | 20.7 | 19.678 |
| 10 | Cincinnati (FC) | 11.11 | 9.57 | 7 | 13 | 1.87 | 17.5 | 19.634 |
| 18 | Colorado Rapids | 20.44 | 18.71 | 14 | 22 | 2.65 | 16 | 15.666 |
| 12 | Columbus Crew SC | 8.89 | 12.71 | 4 | 16 | 3.76 | 11.3 | 10.859 |
| 28 | D.C. United | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 0 | 24.5 | 17.176 |
| 6 | Dallas (FC) | 5.89 | 6.29 | 4 | 16 | 3.82 | 8.5 | 11.1342 |
| 26 | Houston Dynamo | 24.56 | 25.43 | 24 | 27 | 0.88 | 22 | 17.22 |
| 15 | Inter Miami CF | 14 | 15.14 | 11 | 21 | 3.91 | 21.3 | 17.622 |
| 9 | L.A. Galaxy | 10.33 | 8.57 | 6 | 12 | 2.06 | 9.8 | 11.408 |
| 2 | Los Angeles FC | 1.56 | 1.71 | 1 | 3 | 0.67 | 2 | 5.5268 |
| 11 | Minnesota United FC | 15.22 | 12.14 | 7 | 17 | 2.93 | 11 | 12.076 |
| 3 | Montreal (CF) | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 3.06 | 10.2 | 14.52 |
| 7 | Nashville SC | 8.11 | 6.86 | 4 | 10 | 1.96 | 8.7 | 11.874 |
| 17 | New England Revolution | 20 | 18.29 | 6 | 23 | 4.77 | 14.7 | 12.164 |
| 4 | New York City FC | 6.33 | 4.86 | 3 | 10 | 2.11 | 6.6 | 6.5156 |
| 8 | New York RB | 7.11 | 7.29 | 5 | 10 | 1.58 | 6.4 | 9.5228 |
| 16 | Orlando City SC | 14.11 | 15.86 | 13 | 23 | 3.87 | 13.5 | 13.312 |
| 1 | Philadelphia Union | 1.44 | 1.29 | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 6.902 |
| 14 | Portland Timbers | 11.67 | 14 | 7 | 16 | 2.79 | 13.8 | 11.134 |
| 13 | Real Salt Lake | 14.44 | 13 | 9 | 15 | 1.79 | 10.8 | 13.31 |
| 25 | San Jose Earthquakes | 25 | 24.43 | 19 | 26 | 2.65 | 23.8 | 18.838 |
| 19 | Seattle Sounders FC | 19.44 | 19.43 | 12 | 23 | 3.91 | 13.9 | 7.384 |
| 22 | Sporting Kansas City | 20.22 | 21.14 | 16 | 26 | 3.14 | 23.5 | 10.9248 |
| 27 | Toronto FC | 25.67 | 26.43 | 20 | 27 | 2.54 | 21.7 | 14.724 |
| 20 | Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 18.56 | 20.14 | 16 | 25 | 3.49 | 22.6 | 19.364 |
- Highest Standard Deviation: San Jose Earthquakes at 4.65
- Lowest Standard Deviation: Los Angeles FC 0.0
- Biggest Rise: Philadelphia Union, Real Salt Lake - Up 4
- Biggest Fall: Houston Dynamo, Portland Timbers, Seattle Sounders - Down 3
Site Bias
All sites are going to have bias, whether conscious (blogs) or due to analytic calculation (based on past performance). This section lets you see the extent that sites are biased for/against teams.
| Team / Site | AVG | Jeff Sagarin | 538 | Who Scored | ESPN | Massey | Soc. Amer | MLS | Sonny Moore | Freeborg | MLS Multiplex | 3rd deg. | US Soc. Players | AVG | Team / Site |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta United FC | 15.5 | -0.5 | -0.97 | 1.57 | 2.83 | 1.9 | 0.28 | 2.19 | -1.87 | 5.67 | 1.81 | 5.64 | 1.1 | 15.5 | ATL |
| Chicago Fire | 18.66 | -0.47 | -0.59 | -3.66 | 1.09 | 1.01 | 2.9 | 1.34 | 4.59 | 0.26 | 2.84 | 3.34 | 3.94 | 18.66 | CHI |
| Colorado Rapids | 14.04 | -0.48 | 1.83 | -5.51 | 1.04 | -0.24 | 1.74 | 1.59 | 4.4 | -2.87 | 3.65 | 2.25 | 3.96 | 14.04 | COL |
| Columbus Crew SC | 4.71 | 4.42 | -0.98 | 0.89 | -0.21 | 0.09 | -2.04 | -1.08 | 4.42 | 1.71 | -1.27 | 1.86 | 0.29 | 4.71 | CLB |
| D.C. United | 20.48 | 0.58 | 3.59 | -0.68 | 0.69 | 2.32 | 0.96 | 3.02 | -0.98 | 2.52 | 0.21 | 4.38 | 1.32 | 20.48 | DCU |
| FC Cincinnati | 22.34 | 2.72 | 3.06 | 1.86 | 1.99 | 1.33 | -1.45 | 0.97 | 1.79 | 0.41 | 0.72 | -0.91 | -0.14 | 22.34 | CIN |
| FC Dallas | 9.94 | -1.25 | -0.01 | -2.94 | 2.39 | 0.13 | 0.62 | 1.75 | -2.94 | -0.27 | 4.44 | 2.77 | 5.06 | 9.94 | FCD |
| Houston Dynamo | 17.46 | 0.79 | 2.67 | 0.47 | 0.29 | -2.26 | 2.21 | 2.29 | -1.77 | -0.79 | 1.79 | 2.25 | -0.06 | 17.46 | HOU |
| Inter Miami CF | 6.51 | 4.86 | -0.02 | -0.42 | 2.36 | -0.22 | 2.55 | 1.74 | -6.89 | -2.72 | 4.24 | 2.68 | 2.11 | 6.51 | MIA |
| Los Angeles FC | 15.67 | -1.88 | -1.98 | 1.96 | 2.99 | 0.89 | -0.4 | 1.24 | -2.95 | 9.07 | 1.68 | 1.35 | -1.11 | 15.67 | LAFC |
| L.A. Galaxy | 6.86 | 1.77 | -1.67 | -4.4 | 0.83 | 2.13 | -2.34 | 2.21 | 0.46 | 4.33 | 1.08 | -3.38 | 0.93 | 6.86 | LAG |
| Minnesota United FC | 15.85 | -1.11 | 2.87 | -4.13 | 3.64 | -1.53 | 0.25 | 2.58 | -0.23 | 2.06 | 1.08 | 0.71 | 1.14 | 15.85 | MUFC |
| Montreal Impact | 12.24 | 2.65 | 2.55 | -1.25 | -0.85 | 2.82 | 0.59 | 1.28 | 5.09 | -1.02 | -0.22 | -0.56 | -0.65 | 12.24 | MTL |
| Nashville SC | 9.15 | 1.56 | 1.85 | 2.18 | -0.82 | -2.95 | 3.18 | -0.38 | 0.06 | 0.43 | 1.99 | 2.89 | 1.38 | 9.15 | NASH |
| N.E. Revolution | 13.88 | 4.45 | 1.43 | 0.36 | -2.41 | 1.76 | -0.24 | -0.11 | 3.32 | -1.41 | -0.8 | 1.76 | -1.84 | 13.88 | NER |
| New York City FC | 7.92 | -0.65 | 0.78 | 3.52 | 0.68 | -0.68 | 4.96 | -0.15 | -1.15 | -2.48 | 1.66 | -1.86 | -0.95 | 7.92 | NYFC |
| New York RB | 13.88 | 1.12 | 0.59 | -1.28 | -0.46 | 2.52 | 1.34 | 1.18 | 1.81 | 1.95 | -0.82 | 6.12 | 5.32 | 13.88 | NYRB |
| Orlando City SC | 7.92 | -0.29 | 2.35 | 5.21 | -0.92 | -2.85 | 1.64 | 0.14 | 1.64 | -2.75 | -0.11 | 0.37 | 1.08 | 7.92 | ORL |
| Philadelphia Union | 3.86 | -0.61 | -0.86 | 3.94 | 0.22 | -0.73 | 0.92 | -0.3 | -0.8 | -1.94 | 0.77 | 1.85 | 1.74 | 3.86 | PHI |
| Portland Timbers | 7.53 | -0.97 | 2.2 | 8.8 | 0.64 | -3.53 | 1.03 | -1.28 | 1.72 | 4.72 | -0.9 | -4.39 | -1.13 | 7.53 | POR |
| Real Salt Lake | 15.16 | -1.41 | 1.04 | 1.64 | 3.34 | 2.91 | 0.62 | 0.65 | -1.1 | 1.17 | 1.47 | 0.41 | 1.04 | 15.16 | RSL |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 17.05 | 0.01 | 0.28 | 8.08 | 0.62 | 2.82 | -0.27 | 1.08 | 2.95 | 2.78 | 0.2 | -1.62 | -4.25 | 17.05 | SJE |
| Seattle Sounders FC | 4.1 | -0.79 | 0.9 | -0.17 | 0.23 | 3.57 | 0.23 | -0.6 | -0.97 | 1.98 | 0.34 | -1.24 | -0.1 | 4.1 | SEA |
| Sporting Kansas City | 7.64 | 3.74 | -0.51 | -0.17 | 1.86 | 1.83 | 1.25 | 0.17 | 4.74 | -0.22 | -1.51 | -0.21 | -0.64 | 7.64 | SKC |
| Toronto FC | 4.42 | 1.46 | -1.55 | 3.05 | -0.75 | 4.45 | -0.75 | -1.48 | 2.58 | -0.17 | -1.79 | -2.42 | 4.18 | 4.42 | TFC |
| Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 21.04 | 1.59 | 2.43 | 2.36 | 0.04 | 3.89 | 1.4 | 1.27 | 3.4 | -1.12 | -1.23 | -2.75 | -2.64 | 21.04 | VAN |
| X Team / Site | AVG | Sagarin | 538 | Who Scored | ESPN | Massey | Soc. Amer | MLS | Sonny Moore | Freeborg | MLS Multiplex | 3rd deg. | US Soc. Players | AVG | Team / Site |
Site Accuracy
Just a little table to show how far each site deviated from the week’s average.
| Site | Most Bias VS | Most Bias For | Least Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Sagarin | SJE | SKC | VAN |
| FiveThirtyEight | SJE | ATL | CLB |
| Who Scored | POR | DCU | NYFC |
| ESPN | POR | NER | FCD |
| Massey | NYRB | POR | NER |
| Soccer America | POR | HOU | CLB |
| MLS Soccer | DCU | COL | HOU |
| MLS Fantasy Boss | MUFC | SKC | DCU |
| Reddit /r/mls | RSL | NYRB | DCU |
| Dallas News | MTL | TFC | SEA |
| ProSoccerUSA | NYFC | COL | SJE |
| Big D Soccer | DCU | TFC | SKC |
| AJC | NYFC | MTL | CIN |
| Cincinnati Soccer Talk | POR | HOU | SJE |
| Freeborg Power Index | NYRB | POR | ORL |
| In On It | MUFC | SKC | HOU |
| US Soccer Players | ORL | NER | ATL |
- Most Accurate: Cincinnati Soccer Talk with 8 exactly on average, and 10 off by 1 (tiebreaker).
- Least Accurate: In On It with 7 off by 6+.
