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Original publish date: March 8, 2018

MLS Power Ranking Averages Wk 1

11 sites published rankings, who’s your pick for #1?

Week 1 is in the books, and contained at least 2 major unpredictable results!

First a reminder of what Power Rankings should be (not that every site does of course...):

"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"

-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk.  3/11/14

11 sites published for week 1. I expect others may start later as the season goes on. Preseason rankings are not included in the total averages.

Now on to the rankings. As always, if you come across a site that I’ve not included please send me their link!

Sites Used

  • Jeff Sagarin’s MLS Rankings (sagarin.com/sports/soccer)
  • Five Thirty Eight (projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/mls)
  • Massey Rankings (masseyratings.com/mls/ratings)
  • ESPN (ESPNFC.com/major-league-soccer/19/index)
  • Soccer America (socceramerica.com)
  • MLS Soccer (mlssoccer.com/series/power-rankings)
  • MLS Fantasy Boss (mlsfantasyboss.com)
  • Reddit MLS (reddit/r/MLS)
  • The Mane Land (themaneland.com)
  • Philly Soccer Page (phillysoccerpage.net/category/seba-projections/)
  • MLS Fix (youtube.com/channel/UCOIovJpP95VaFCvsmdhm8ZA)

You may notice the list includes several ‘analytic’ sites; the analytic sites function as a counterbalance to the rest which are based more on personal opinions. All the averages use the Olympic method of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and then averaging the rest to remove potential bias.

PlaceTeamWk 33Wk 34Wk BestWk WorstStd. Dev2022 Avg5-yr avg
21Atlanta United FC20.6720.8610254.4617.611.0832
5Austin FC5.226.145174.027.212.992
23Charlotte FC2021.7116273.6122.814.784
24Chicago Fire23.5622.7117242.1720.719.678
10Cincinnati (FC)11.119.577131.8717.519.634
18Colorado Rapids20.4418.7114222.651615.666
12Columbus Crew SC8.8912.714163.7611.310.859
28D.C. United28282828024.517.176
6Dallas (FC)5.896.294163.828.511.1342
26Houston Dynamo24.5625.4324270.882217.22
15Inter Miami CF1415.1411213.9121.317.622
9L.A. Galaxy10.338.576122.069.811.408
2Los Angeles FC1.561.71130.6725.5268
11Minnesota United FC15.2212.147172.931112.076
3Montreal (CF)332123.0610.214.52
7Nashville SC8.116.864101.968.711.874
17New England Revolution2018.296234.7714.712.164
4New York City FC6.334.863102.116.66.5156
8New York RB7.117.295101.586.49.5228
16Orlando City SC14.1115.8613233.8713.513.312
1Philadelphia Union1.441.29120.52.56.902
14Portland Timbers11.67147162.7913.811.134
13Real Salt Lake14.44139151.7910.813.31
25San Jose Earthquakes2524.4319262.6523.818.838
19Seattle Sounders FC19.4419.4312233.9113.97.384
22Sporting Kansas City20.2221.1416263.1423.510.9248
27Toronto FC25.6726.4320272.5421.714.724
20Vancouver Whitecaps FC18.5620.1416253.4922.619.364
  • Highest Standard Deviation: Los Angeles FC at 6.32.
  • Lowest Standard Deviation: Minnesota United 1.00
  • Biggest Rise: TBD week 2
  • Biggest Fall: TBD week 2

Site# Exact1 Off2 Off3 Off4 Off5 Off6+ Off
Jeff Sagarin41013401
FiveThirtyEight11722100
Massey4345124
ESPN7940120
Soccer America11614010
MLS11721110
MLS Fantasy Boss61132100
Reddit /r/mls10840100
The Mane Land6861101
Philly Soc Page7752200
MLS MultiplexNA
Dallas NewsNA
Pro Soccer USANA
Who Scored4345124
Stumptown FootyNA
Soccer By IvesNA
Couch Metrics71032010
  • Most Accurate for the week: The Mane Land with 8 exact matches.
  • Least Accurate for the week: Philly Soccer Page with 9 off by 5+.

Site Bias

This table shows how far each team is from average listed by site. Negatives are better (higher on table), positives are worse (lower on table) than the season average from all sites. The further off a site is for each team may indicate how strongly biased they are.

Team / SiteAVGJeff SagarinFive-Thirty-EightMasseyESPNSoc. AmerMLSMLS Fant. BossReddit /r/mlsMane LandPhilly Soc. PageMLS MultiplexDallas NewsPro Soc. USAWho ScoredCouch MetricsAVGTeam / Site
Atlanta United2.258-0.108-0.998-0.078-0.5680.332-0.318-0.568-0.1982.072-0.1980.012-0.158-0.6982.282-1.2182.258Atlanta United
Chicago Fire17.654-1.8640.6960.1660.8460.4061.026-0.4840.586-0.414-0.0740.1760.0461.5860.5560.60617.654Chicago Fire
Colorado Rapids20.757-0.8470.303-0.3170.713-1.5670.3330.0030.4230.543-0.047-1.427-1.257-0.5170.2030.37320.757Colorado Rapids
Columbus Crew7.794-0.2940.2060.676-1.2940.116-0.504-0.314-1.234-0.584-0.1840.0061.9360.1665.4561.4667.794Columbus Crew
D.C. United17.043-2.6630.667-2.3030.9570.617-0.1931.5470.2470.317-0.8830.9571.857-0.6430.4971.43717.043D.C. United
FC Dallas7.0680.522-0.478-0.7781.342-0.818-0.098-0.0680.0221.0521.222-0.1680.402-0.988-1.608-3.7187.068FC Dallas
Houston Dynamo12.253-2.0431.1571.867-0.533-0.6930.2170.467-0.253-1.4032.4570.1770.0171.587-2.2531.04712.253Houston Dynamo
Los Angeles FC5.9452.315-0.125-1.5050.055-0.2850.235-0.355-0.1550.815-2.3350.2550.4250.535-2.085-0.6855.945Los Angeles FC
L.A. Galaxy12.0291.321-0.819-0.649-0.029-1.059-0.7894.381-0.819-0.8494.5510.471-1.129-0.269-0.779-1.41912.029L.A. Galaxy
Minnesota United18.3851.5251.1450.465-1.005-0.5450.3251.615-0.9451.1350.775-0.785-1.055-0.4251.475-1.51518.385Minnesota United
Montreal Impact16.10.250.75-0.450.180.06-1.041.450.05-1.580.510.93-0.8-1.78-0.670.3816.1Montreal Impact
N.E. Revolution13.431-1.4310.629-0.8710.909-1.7411.159-0.1210.8091.089-0.491-0.361-0.8310.529-1.141-0.52113.431N.E. Revolution
New York FC4.348-1.138-0.998-0.2280.4920.3721.182-1.1080.0620.5020.8420.982-0.5781.4520.1920.0024.348New York FC
New York RB3.259-0.639-0.1990.771-0.4491.051-0.319-0.599-0.169-0.259-0.159-0.229-0.659-0.379-1.439-0.1693.259New York RB
Orlando SC17.9461.9040.8741.644-0.816-0.356-0.2962.504-0.536-0.5260.444-1.4760.184-1.6660.014-0.81617.946Orlando SC
Philadelphia Union13.691.16-0.60.520.34-0.16-0.840.59-0.750.4-0.560.582.04-0.050.240.5713.69Philadelphia Union
Portland Timbers9.195-0.875-1.845-0.6350.555-0.5050.065-0.7851.715-0.135-1.8050.435-1.8650.925-0.055-2.7159.195Portland Timbers
Real Salt Lake13.4483.112-0.828-1.0380.022-0.6380.372-0.0680.1423.002-1.128-0.5181.7220.152-2.158-1.79813.448Real Salt Lake
San Jose Earthquakes20.143-0.5532.1470.507-0.2030.1070.0370.577-0.583-0.9931.337-0.1730.8870.817-5.8932.59720.143San Jose Earthquakes
Seattle Sounders12.061-0.181-1.971-0.7710.0692.3190.259-4.3711.349-1.761-2.7712.139-0.8910.5392.6891.41912.061Seattle Sounders
Sporting Kansas City5.142-0.382-0.4920.8580.5180.828-0.2620.648-0.262-0.4722.018-0.772-0.112-0.702-3.7820.3385.142Sporting Kansas City
Toronto FC12.716-0.926-0.5362.524-0.1563.784-1.566-4.2361.464-1.836-3.776-0.286-0.446-0.3563.4944.98412.716Toronto FC
Vancouver Whitecaps13.0162.1341.924-0.016-1.546-1.2961.334-0.426-1.1060.1940.594-0.8160.5840.4644.914-0.31613.016Vancouver Whitecaps
Most Bias VS(+)3.1122.1472.5241.3423.7841.3344.3811.7153.0024.5512.1392.041.5875.4564.984(+)Most Bias VS
Most Bias FOR(-)-2.663-1.971-2.303-1.546-1.741-1.566-4.371-1.234-1.836-3.776-1.476-1.865-1.78-5.893-3.718(-)Most Bias FOR
  • Most season bias For: The Mane Land with Sporting Kansas City 9.111 better than average.
  • Most season bias Against: Jeff Sagarin with Los Angeles FC 17.788 worse than average.
  • Least season bias For/Against: MLS Fantasy Boss, Reddit/r/MLS, and Philly Soccer Page all with New York Red Bulls exactly on average below average.

Team / SiteAVGJeff SagarinFive-Thirty-EightMasseyESPNSoc. AmerMLSMLS Fant. BossReddit /r/mlsMane LandPhilly Soc. PageMLS MultiplexDallas NewsPro Soc. USAWho ScoredCouch MetricsAVG
Atlanta United2.2582.151.262.181.692.591.941.692.064.332.062.272.11.564.541.042.258
Chicago Fire17.65415.7918.3517.8218.518.0618.6817.1718.2417.2417.5817.8317.719.2418.2118.2617.654
Colorado Rapids20.75719.9121.0620.4421.4719.1921.0920.7621.1821.320.7119.3319.520.2420.9621.1320.757
Columbus Crew7.7947.588.476.57.917.297.486.567.217.617.89.737.9613.259.267.794
D.C. United17.04314.3817.7114.741817.6616.8518.5917.2917.3616.161818.916.417.5418.4817.043
FC Dallas7.0687.596.596.298.416.256.9777.098.128.296.97.476.085.463.357.068
Houston Dynamo12.25310.2113.4114.1211.7211.5612.4712.721210.8514.7112.4312.2713.841013.312.253
Los Angeles FC5.9458.265.824.4465.666.185.595.796.763.616.26.376.483.865.265.945
L.A. Galaxy12.02913.3511.2111.381210.9711.2416.4111.2111.1816.5812.510.911.7611.2510.6112.029
Minnesota United18.38519.9119.5318.8517.3817.8418.712017.4419.5219.1617.617.3317.9619.8616.8718.385
Montreal Impact16.116.3516.8515.6516.2816.1615.0617.5516.1514.5216.6117.0315.314.3215.4316.4816.1
N.E. Revolution13.4311214.0612.5614.3411.6914.5913.3114.2414.5212.9413.0712.613.9612.2912.9113.431
New York FC4.3483.213.354.124.844.725.533.244.414.855.195.333.775.84.544.354.348
New York RB3.2592.623.064.032.814.312.942.663.0933.13.032.62.881.823.093.259
Orlando SC17.94619.8518.8219.5917.1317.5917.6520.4517.4117.4218.3916.4718.1316.2817.9617.1317.946
Philadelphia Union13.6914.8513.0914.2114.0313.5312.8514.2812.9414.0913.1314.2715.7313.6413.9314.2613.69
Portland Timbers9.1958.327.358.569.758.699.268.4110.919.067.399.637.3310.129.146.489.195
Real Salt Lake13.44816.5612.6212.4113.4712.8113.8213.3813.5916.4512.3212.9315.1713.611.2911.6513.448
San Jose Earthquakes20.14319.5922.2920.6519.9420.2520.1820.7219.5619.1521.4819.9721.0320.9614.2522.7420.143
Seattle Sounders12.06111.8810.0911.2912.1314.3812.327.6913.4110.39.2914.211.1712.614.7513.4812.061
Sporting Kansas City5.1424.764.6565.665.974.885.794.884.677.164.375.034.441.365.485.142
Toronto FC12.71611.7912.1815.2412.5616.511.158.4814.1810.888.9412.4312.2712.3616.2117.712.716
Vancouver Whitecaps13.01615.1514.941311.4711.7214.3512.5911.9113.2113.6112.213.613.4817.9312.713.016

Weighted Season Average 2012-2017

The ‘7 year average’ is the season ending average with each preceding year’s value decreasing by 10% (2017=100%, 2012=50%).

Team/Year2012201320142015201620172018Wt Avg
Atlanta United3.64.55.4785.8144.6678.74
Chicago Fire3.1647.1759.32412.39715.047.15515.84714.02
Colorado Rapids5.144.946.92412.1664.216.51519.74613.57
Columbus Crew4.686.4055.766.12513.04810.1434.36210.69
D.C. United2.988.624.4944.13711.12816.91120.58213.05
FC Dallas5.1524.293.813.2482.1845.46313.3437.8
Houston Dynamo2.73.8557.6629.66713.1528.4249.510.91
Los Angeles FC3.884.83855.80087.358.410.3237.4899.86
L.A. Galaxy3.3562.5753.1383.157314.16611.5477.76
Minnesota United3.64.55.47817.73918.13912.56
Montreal Impact5.5962.58510.52410.5426.01613.03216.18312.85
N.E. Revolution5.9126.265.7966.6512.3613.76114.55213.11
New York City FC3.884.83855.800810.8297.5363.961.7348.58
New York RB2.2323.266.033.2766.4887.5155.5166.97
Orlando City SC3.884.83855.80089.94710.4811.71817.5412.42
Philadelphia Union6.0765.2257.1112.6496.92814.68813.34113.41
Portland Timbers6.3522.9156.9846.6157.8246.5716.99910.98
Real Salt Lake1.482.292.4728.7015.60815.32714.7829.09
San Jose Earthquakes1.0446.199.127.7988.75212.76214.79211.61
Seattle Sounders2.0284.691.7164.249117.10113.0298.29
Sporting Kansas City1.2282.243.3844.4457.2965.0227.846.01
Toronto FC7.148.4155.3826.8254.9681.9174.7959.51
Vancouver Whitecaps3.585.1654.7883.56310.9211.3318.6179.6