Wasatch Soccer SentinelWelcome to MLS 2018, and the first weekly edition of the Power Ranking Averages! First a reminder of what Power Rankings should be (not that every site does of course...):
"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"
-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk. 3/11/14
8 sites published preseason rankings, and are listed below. These rankings will not be included in subsequent weeks for the season average totals. Only rankings based on game-weeks are used.
Now on to the rankings. As always, if you come across a site that I’ve not included please send me their link!
Sites Used
- Five Thirty Eight (projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/mls)
- ESPN (ESPNFC.com/major-league-soccer/19/index)
- MLS Soccer (mlssoccer.com/series/power-rankings)
- Soccer By Ives (sbisoccer.com)
- MLS Fantasy Boss (mlsfantasyboss.com)
- The Score (thescore.com/mls/news)
- Stumptown Footy (stumptownfooty.com/)
- MLS Fix (youtube.com/channel/UCOIovJpP95VaFCvsmdhm8ZA
Used last year, but no preseason ranking
- Jeff Sagarin’s MLS Rankings (sagarin.com/sports/soccer)
- In On It (inonit.com/mls-playoffs-odds/power-rankings)
- Sports Illustrated (SI.com/planet-futbol)
- Soccer America (socceramerica.com)
- Reddit MLS (reddit/r/MLS)
- MLS Aces (mlsaces.sportsblog.com)
- Massey Rankings (masseyratings.com/mls/ratings)
You may notice the list includes several ‘analytic’ sites; the analytic sites function as a counterbalance to the rest which are based more on personal opinions. All the averages use the Olympic method of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and then averaging the rest to remove potential bias.
| Place | Team | Wk 33 | Wk 34 | Wk Best | Wk Worst | Std. Dev | 2022 Avg | 5-yr avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Atlanta United FC | 20.67 | 20.86 | 10 | 25 | 4.46 | 17.6 | 11.0832 |
| 5 | Austin FC | 5.22 | 6.14 | 5 | 17 | 4.02 | 7.2 | 12.992 |
| 23 | Charlotte FC | 20 | 21.71 | 16 | 27 | 3.61 | 22.8 | 14.784 |
| 24 | Chicago Fire | 23.56 | 22.71 | 17 | 24 | 2.17 | 20.7 | 19.678 |
| 10 | Cincinnati (FC) | 11.11 | 9.57 | 7 | 13 | 1.87 | 17.5 | 19.634 |
| 18 | Colorado Rapids | 20.44 | 18.71 | 14 | 22 | 2.65 | 16 | 15.666 |
| 12 | Columbus Crew SC | 8.89 | 12.71 | 4 | 16 | 3.76 | 11.3 | 10.859 |
| 28 | D.C. United | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 0 | 24.5 | 17.176 |
| 6 | Dallas (FC) | 5.89 | 6.29 | 4 | 16 | 3.82 | 8.5 | 11.1342 |
| 26 | Houston Dynamo | 24.56 | 25.43 | 24 | 27 | 0.88 | 22 | 17.22 |
| 15 | Inter Miami CF | 14 | 15.14 | 11 | 21 | 3.91 | 21.3 | 17.622 |
| 9 | L.A. Galaxy | 10.33 | 8.57 | 6 | 12 | 2.06 | 9.8 | 11.408 |
| 2 | Los Angeles FC | 1.56 | 1.71 | 1 | 3 | 0.67 | 2 | 5.5268 |
| 11 | Minnesota United FC | 15.22 | 12.14 | 7 | 17 | 2.93 | 11 | 12.076 |
| 3 | Montreal (CF) | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 3.06 | 10.2 | 14.52 |
| 7 | Nashville SC | 8.11 | 6.86 | 4 | 10 | 1.96 | 8.7 | 11.874 |
| 17 | New England Revolution | 20 | 18.29 | 6 | 23 | 4.77 | 14.7 | 12.164 |
| 4 | New York City FC | 6.33 | 4.86 | 3 | 10 | 2.11 | 6.6 | 6.5156 |
| 8 | New York RB | 7.11 | 7.29 | 5 | 10 | 1.58 | 6.4 | 9.5228 |
| 16 | Orlando City SC | 14.11 | 15.86 | 13 | 23 | 3.87 | 13.5 | 13.312 |
| 1 | Philadelphia Union | 1.44 | 1.29 | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 6.902 |
| 14 | Portland Timbers | 11.67 | 14 | 7 | 16 | 2.79 | 13.8 | 11.134 |
| 13 | Real Salt Lake | 14.44 | 13 | 9 | 15 | 1.79 | 10.8 | 13.31 |
| 25 | San Jose Earthquakes | 25 | 24.43 | 19 | 26 | 2.65 | 23.8 | 18.838 |
| 19 | Seattle Sounders FC | 19.44 | 19.43 | 12 | 23 | 3.91 | 13.9 | 7.384 |
| 22 | Sporting Kansas City | 20.22 | 21.14 | 16 | 26 | 3.14 | 23.5 | 10.9248 |
| 27 | Toronto FC | 25.67 | 26.43 | 20 | 27 | 2.54 | 21.7 | 14.724 |
| 20 | Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 18.56 | 20.14 | 16 | 25 | 3.49 | 22.6 | 19.364 |
- Highest Standard Deviation: Orlando City SC at 5.67.
- Lowest Standard Deviation: Toronto FC 0.35
- Biggest Rise: TBD
- Biggest Fall: TBD
Season averages 2012-2017
A reminder of previous years. Please notice that expansion teams have an entry for years they weren’t in the league. For those years they are given the average for the entire league. This is to factor in the ‘weighted average’ below, as well as to even out large spikes between years (see NYCFC as an example)
| Team/Year | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Tot Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta United | 9.7 | 9.677 | 9.668 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 6.462 | 9.42 | |
| Chicago Fire | 7.91 | 14.35 | 15.54 | 17.71 | 18.8 | 7.95 | 13.71 | |
| Colorado Rapids | 12.85 | 9.88 | 11.54 | 17.38 | 5.25 | 18.35 | 12.54 | |
| Columbus Crew | 11.7 | 12.81 | 9.6 | 8.75 | 16.31 | 11.271 | 11.74 | |
| D.C. United | 7.45 | 17.24 | 7.49 | 5.91 | 13.91 | 18.79 | 11.8 | |
| FC Dallas | 12.88 | 8.58 | 6.35 | 4.64 | 2.73 | 6.072 | 6.88 | |
| Houston Dynamo | 6.75 | 7.71 | 12.77 | 13.81 | 16.44 | 9.235 | 11.12 | |
| L.A. Galaxy | 8.39 | 5.15 | 5.23 | 4.51 | 3.75 | 15.737 | 7.13 | |
| Minnesota United | 9.7 | 9.677 | 9.668 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 19.712 | 11.63 | |
| Montreal Impact | 13.99 | 5.17 | 17.54 | 15.06 | 7.52 | 14.475 | 12.29 | |
| N.E. Revolution | 14.78 | 12.52 | 9.66 | 9.5 | 15.45 | 15.29 | 12.87 | |
| New York City FC | 9.7 | 9.677 | 9.668 | 15.47 | 9.42 | 4.404 | 9.72 | |
| New York RB | 5.58 | 6.52 | 10.05 | 4.68 | 8.11 | 8.352 | 7.22 | |
| Orlando City SC | 9.7 | 9.677 | 9.668 | 14.21 | 13.1 | 13.02 | 11.56 | |
| Philadelphia Union | 15.19 | 10.45 | 11.85 | 18.07 | 8.66 | 16.316 | 13.42 | |
| Portland Timbers | 15.88 | 5.83 | 11.64 | 9.45 | 9.78 | 7.297 | 9.98 | |
| Real Salt Lake | 3.7 | 4.58 | 4.12 | 12.43 | 7.01 | 17.026 | 8.14 | |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 2.61 | 12.38 | 15.2 | 11.14 | 10.94 | 14.175 | 11.07 | |
| Seattle Sounders | 5.07 | 9.38 | 2.86 | 6.07 | 13.75 | 7.891 | 7.5 | |
| Sporting Kansas City | 3.07 | 4.48 | 5.64 | 6.35 | 9.12 | 5.579 | 5.71 | |
| Toronto FC | 17.85 | 16.83 | 8.97 | 9.75 | 6.21 | 2.128 | 10.29 | |
| Vancouver Whitecaps | 8.95 | 10.33 | 7.98 | 5.09 | 13.65 | 12.594 | 9.77 |
Weighted Season Average 2012-2017
The ‘6 year average’ is the season ending average with each preceding year’s value decreasing by 10% (2017=100%, 2012=50%).
| Team/Year | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Wt Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta United | 3.6 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 7 | 8 | 5.814 | 4.667 | 8.74 |
| Chicago Fire | 3.164 | 7.175 | 9.324 | 12.397 | 15.04 | 7.155 | 15.847 | 14.02 |
| Colorado Rapids | 5.14 | 4.94 | 6.924 | 12.166 | 4.2 | 16.515 | 19.746 | 13.57 |
| Columbus Crew | 4.68 | 6.405 | 5.76 | 6.125 | 13.048 | 10.143 | 4.362 | 10.69 |
| D.C. United | 2.98 | 8.62 | 4.494 | 4.137 | 11.128 | 16.911 | 20.582 | 13.05 |
| FC Dallas | 5.152 | 4.29 | 3.81 | 3.248 | 2.184 | 5.463 | 13.343 | 7.8 |
| Houston Dynamo | 2.7 | 3.855 | 7.662 | 9.667 | 13.152 | 8.424 | 9.5 | 10.91 |
| Los Angeles FC | 3.88 | 4.8385 | 5.8008 | 7.35 | 8.4 | 10.323 | 7.489 | 9.86 |
| L.A. Galaxy | 3.356 | 2.575 | 3.138 | 3.157 | 3 | 14.166 | 11.547 | 7.76 |
| Minnesota United | 3.6 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 7 | 8 | 17.739 | 18.139 | 12.56 |
| Montreal Impact | 5.596 | 2.585 | 10.524 | 10.542 | 6.016 | 13.032 | 16.183 | 12.85 |
| N.E. Revolution | 5.912 | 6.26 | 5.796 | 6.65 | 12.36 | 13.761 | 14.552 | 13.11 |
| New York City FC | 3.88 | 4.8385 | 5.8008 | 10.829 | 7.536 | 3.96 | 1.734 | 8.58 |
| New York RB | 2.232 | 3.26 | 6.03 | 3.276 | 6.488 | 7.515 | 5.516 | 6.97 |
| Orlando City SC | 3.88 | 4.8385 | 5.8008 | 9.947 | 10.48 | 11.718 | 17.54 | 12.42 |
| Philadelphia Union | 6.076 | 5.225 | 7.11 | 12.649 | 6.928 | 14.688 | 13.341 | 13.41 |
| Portland Timbers | 6.352 | 2.915 | 6.984 | 6.615 | 7.824 | 6.57 | 16.999 | 10.98 |
| Real Salt Lake | 1.48 | 2.29 | 2.472 | 8.701 | 5.608 | 15.327 | 14.782 | 9.09 |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 1.044 | 6.19 | 9.12 | 7.798 | 8.752 | 12.762 | 14.792 | 11.61 |
| Seattle Sounders | 2.028 | 4.69 | 1.716 | 4.249 | 11 | 7.101 | 13.029 | 8.29 |
| Sporting Kansas City | 1.228 | 2.24 | 3.384 | 4.445 | 7.296 | 5.022 | 7.84 | 6.01 |
| Toronto FC | 7.14 | 8.415 | 5.382 | 6.825 | 4.968 | 1.917 | 4.795 | 9.51 |
| Vancouver Whitecaps | 3.58 | 5.165 | 4.788 | 3.563 | 10.92 | 11.331 | 8.617 | 9.6 |
