Wasatch Soccer Sentinel"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"
-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk. 3/11/14
Only 13 of 19 sites published. NBC Sports published wk 20 early last Fri. Goal.com has now missed 4 consecutive weeks, and the person who was doing them is not longer with the site. I’ll give them one more week before dropping.
Now on to the rankings. As always, if you come across a site that I’ve not included please send me their link!
Sites Used
- Jeff Sagarin’s MLS Rankings (sagarin.com/sports/soccer)
- MLS Fantasy Boss (mlsfantasyboss.com)
- In On It (inonit.com/mls-playoffs-odds/power-rankings)
- Five Thirty Eight (projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/mls)
- Sports Illustrated (SI.com/planet-futbol)
- ESPN (ESPNFC.com/major-league-soccer/19/index)
- Soccer America (socceramerica.com)
- MLS Soccer (mlssoccer.com/series/power-rankings)
- Soccer By Ives (sbisoccer.com)
- The Score (thescore.com/mls/news)
- Once A Metro (onceametro.com) - No ranking wk 21
- Goal (goal.com/en-us) - No ranking wk 18-21
- Reddit MLS (reddit/r/MLS)
- NBC Sports (soccer.nbcsports.com/tag/major-league-soccer) - No ranking wk 21
- MLS Aces (mlsaces.sportsblog.com)
- Stumptown Footy (stumptownfooty.com/) - No ranking Wk 21
- Blue Testament (thebluetestament.com/power-rankings) - No ranking Wk 21
- Reddit Monkey Power Ranking (reddit/r/MLS) - No ranking Wk 21
- Massey Rankings (masseyratings.com/mls/ratings)
You may notice the list includes several ‘analytic’ sites; the analytic sites function as a counterbalance to the rest which are based more on personal opinions. All the averages use the Olympic method of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and then averaging the rest to remove potential bias. The ‘6 year average’ is the season ending average with each preceding year’s value decreasing by 10% (2017=100%, 2012=50%).
| Place | Team | Wk 33 | Wk 34 | Wk Best | Wk Worst | Std. Dev | 2022 Avg | 5-yr avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Atlanta United FC | 20.67 | 20.86 | 10 | 25 | 4.46 | 17.6 | 11.0832 |
| 5 | Austin FC | 5.22 | 6.14 | 5 | 17 | 4.02 | 7.2 | 12.992 |
| 23 | Charlotte FC | 20 | 21.71 | 16 | 27 | 3.61 | 22.8 | 14.784 |
| 24 | Chicago Fire | 23.56 | 22.71 | 17 | 24 | 2.17 | 20.7 | 19.678 |
| 10 | Cincinnati (FC) | 11.11 | 9.57 | 7 | 13 | 1.87 | 17.5 | 19.634 |
| 18 | Colorado Rapids | 20.44 | 18.71 | 14 | 22 | 2.65 | 16 | 15.666 |
| 12 | Columbus Crew SC | 8.89 | 12.71 | 4 | 16 | 3.76 | 11.3 | 10.859 |
| 28 | D.C. United | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 0 | 24.5 | 17.176 |
| 6 | Dallas (FC) | 5.89 | 6.29 | 4 | 16 | 3.82 | 8.5 | 11.1342 |
| 26 | Houston Dynamo | 24.56 | 25.43 | 24 | 27 | 0.88 | 22 | 17.22 |
| 15 | Inter Miami CF | 14 | 15.14 | 11 | 21 | 3.91 | 21.3 | 17.622 |
| 9 | L.A. Galaxy | 10.33 | 8.57 | 6 | 12 | 2.06 | 9.8 | 11.408 |
| 2 | Los Angeles FC | 1.56 | 1.71 | 1 | 3 | 0.67 | 2 | 5.5268 |
| 11 | Minnesota United FC | 15.22 | 12.14 | 7 | 17 | 2.93 | 11 | 12.076 |
| 3 | Montreal (CF) | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 3.06 | 10.2 | 14.52 |
| 7 | Nashville SC | 8.11 | 6.86 | 4 | 10 | 1.96 | 8.7 | 11.874 |
| 17 | New England Revolution | 20 | 18.29 | 6 | 23 | 4.77 | 14.7 | 12.164 |
| 4 | New York City FC | 6.33 | 4.86 | 3 | 10 | 2.11 | 6.6 | 6.5156 |
| 8 | New York RB | 7.11 | 7.29 | 5 | 10 | 1.58 | 6.4 | 9.5228 |
| 16 | Orlando City SC | 14.11 | 15.86 | 13 | 23 | 3.87 | 13.5 | 13.312 |
| 1 | Philadelphia Union | 1.44 | 1.29 | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 6.902 |
| 14 | Portland Timbers | 11.67 | 14 | 7 | 16 | 2.79 | 13.8 | 11.134 |
| 13 | Real Salt Lake | 14.44 | 13 | 9 | 15 | 1.79 | 10.8 | 13.31 |
| 25 | San Jose Earthquakes | 25 | 24.43 | 19 | 26 | 2.65 | 23.8 | 18.838 |
| 19 | Seattle Sounders FC | 19.44 | 19.43 | 12 | 23 | 3.91 | 13.9 | 7.384 |
| 22 | Sporting Kansas City | 20.22 | 21.14 | 16 | 26 | 3.14 | 23.5 | 10.9248 |
| 27 | Toronto FC | 25.67 | 26.43 | 20 | 27 | 2.54 | 21.7 | 14.724 |
| 20 | Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 18.56 | 20.14 | 16 | 25 | 3.49 | 22.6 | 19.364 |
- Highest Standard Deviation: San Jose Earthquakes 3.02
- Lowest Standard Deviation: D.C. United 0.29
- Biggest Rise: New England Revolution up 3
- Biggest Fall: Montreal Impact down 5
| Site | # Exact | 1 Off | 2 Off | 3 Off | 4 Off | 5 Off | 6+ Off |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Sagarin | 4 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| FiveThirtyEight | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Massey | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| ESPN | 7 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Soccer America | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| MLS | 11 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| MLS Fantasy Boss | 6 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Reddit /r/mls | 10 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| The Mane Land | 6 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Philly Soc Page | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| MLS Multiplex | NA | ||||||
| Dallas News | NA | ||||||
| Pro Soccer USA | NA | ||||||
| Who Scored | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| Stumptown Footy | NA | ||||||
| Soccer By Ives | NA | ||||||
| Couch Metrics | 7 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
- Most Accurate for the week: MLS with 12 exact matches.
- Least Accurate for the week: A 3 way tie with 2 off by 5+.
| Team / Site | AVG | Jeff Sagarin | Five-Thirty-Eight | Massey | ESPN | Soc. Amer | MLS | MLS Fant. Boss | Reddit /r/mls | Mane Land | Philly Soc. Page | MLS Multiplex | Dallas News | Pro Soc. USA | Who Scored | Couch Metrics | AVG | Team / Site |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta United | 2.258 | -0.108 | -0.998 | -0.078 | -0.568 | 0.332 | -0.318 | -0.568 | -0.198 | 2.072 | -0.198 | 0.012 | -0.158 | -0.698 | 2.282 | -1.218 | 2.258 | Atlanta United |
| Chicago Fire | 17.654 | -1.864 | 0.696 | 0.166 | 0.846 | 0.406 | 1.026 | -0.484 | 0.586 | -0.414 | -0.074 | 0.176 | 0.046 | 1.586 | 0.556 | 0.606 | 17.654 | Chicago Fire |
| Colorado Rapids | 20.757 | -0.847 | 0.303 | -0.317 | 0.713 | -1.567 | 0.333 | 0.003 | 0.423 | 0.543 | -0.047 | -1.427 | -1.257 | -0.517 | 0.203 | 0.373 | 20.757 | Colorado Rapids |
| Columbus Crew | 7.794 | -0.294 | 0.206 | 0.676 | -1.294 | 0.116 | -0.504 | -0.314 | -1.234 | -0.584 | -0.184 | 0.006 | 1.936 | 0.166 | 5.456 | 1.466 | 7.794 | Columbus Crew |
| D.C. United | 17.043 | -2.663 | 0.667 | -2.303 | 0.957 | 0.617 | -0.193 | 1.547 | 0.247 | 0.317 | -0.883 | 0.957 | 1.857 | -0.643 | 0.497 | 1.437 | 17.043 | D.C. United |
| FC Dallas | 7.068 | 0.522 | -0.478 | -0.778 | 1.342 | -0.818 | -0.098 | -0.068 | 0.022 | 1.052 | 1.222 | -0.168 | 0.402 | -0.988 | -1.608 | -3.718 | 7.068 | FC Dallas |
| Houston Dynamo | 12.253 | -2.043 | 1.157 | 1.867 | -0.533 | -0.693 | 0.217 | 0.467 | -0.253 | -1.403 | 2.457 | 0.177 | 0.017 | 1.587 | -2.253 | 1.047 | 12.253 | Houston Dynamo |
| Los Angeles FC | 5.945 | 2.315 | -0.125 | -1.505 | 0.055 | -0.285 | 0.235 | -0.355 | -0.155 | 0.815 | -2.335 | 0.255 | 0.425 | 0.535 | -2.085 | -0.685 | 5.945 | Los Angeles FC |
| L.A. Galaxy | 12.029 | 1.321 | -0.819 | -0.649 | -0.029 | -1.059 | -0.789 | 4.381 | -0.819 | -0.849 | 4.551 | 0.471 | -1.129 | -0.269 | -0.779 | -1.419 | 12.029 | L.A. Galaxy |
| Minnesota United | 18.385 | 1.525 | 1.145 | 0.465 | -1.005 | -0.545 | 0.325 | 1.615 | -0.945 | 1.135 | 0.775 | -0.785 | -1.055 | -0.425 | 1.475 | -1.515 | 18.385 | Minnesota United |
| Montreal Impact | 16.1 | 0.25 | 0.75 | -0.45 | 0.18 | 0.06 | -1.04 | 1.45 | 0.05 | -1.58 | 0.51 | 0.93 | -0.8 | -1.78 | -0.67 | 0.38 | 16.1 | Montreal Impact |
| N.E. Revolution | 13.431 | -1.431 | 0.629 | -0.871 | 0.909 | -1.741 | 1.159 | -0.121 | 0.809 | 1.089 | -0.491 | -0.361 | -0.831 | 0.529 | -1.141 | -0.521 | 13.431 | N.E. Revolution |
| New York FC | 4.348 | -1.138 | -0.998 | -0.228 | 0.492 | 0.372 | 1.182 | -1.108 | 0.062 | 0.502 | 0.842 | 0.982 | -0.578 | 1.452 | 0.192 | 0.002 | 4.348 | New York FC |
| New York RB | 3.259 | -0.639 | -0.199 | 0.771 | -0.449 | 1.051 | -0.319 | -0.599 | -0.169 | -0.259 | -0.159 | -0.229 | -0.659 | -0.379 | -1.439 | -0.169 | 3.259 | New York RB |
| Orlando SC | 17.946 | 1.904 | 0.874 | 1.644 | -0.816 | -0.356 | -0.296 | 2.504 | -0.536 | -0.526 | 0.444 | -1.476 | 0.184 | -1.666 | 0.014 | -0.816 | 17.946 | Orlando SC |
| Philadelphia Union | 13.69 | 1.16 | -0.6 | 0.52 | 0.34 | -0.16 | -0.84 | 0.59 | -0.75 | 0.4 | -0.56 | 0.58 | 2.04 | -0.05 | 0.24 | 0.57 | 13.69 | Philadelphia Union |
| Portland Timbers | 9.195 | -0.875 | -1.845 | -0.635 | 0.555 | -0.505 | 0.065 | -0.785 | 1.715 | -0.135 | -1.805 | 0.435 | -1.865 | 0.925 | -0.055 | -2.715 | 9.195 | Portland Timbers |
| Real Salt Lake | 13.448 | 3.112 | -0.828 | -1.038 | 0.022 | -0.638 | 0.372 | -0.068 | 0.142 | 3.002 | -1.128 | -0.518 | 1.722 | 0.152 | -2.158 | -1.798 | 13.448 | Real Salt Lake |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 20.143 | -0.553 | 2.147 | 0.507 | -0.203 | 0.107 | 0.037 | 0.577 | -0.583 | -0.993 | 1.337 | -0.173 | 0.887 | 0.817 | -5.893 | 2.597 | 20.143 | San Jose Earthquakes |
| Seattle Sounders | 12.061 | -0.181 | -1.971 | -0.771 | 0.069 | 2.319 | 0.259 | -4.371 | 1.349 | -1.761 | -2.771 | 2.139 | -0.891 | 0.539 | 2.689 | 1.419 | 12.061 | Seattle Sounders |
| Sporting Kansas City | 5.142 | -0.382 | -0.492 | 0.858 | 0.518 | 0.828 | -0.262 | 0.648 | -0.262 | -0.472 | 2.018 | -0.772 | -0.112 | -0.702 | -3.782 | 0.338 | 5.142 | Sporting Kansas City |
| Toronto FC | 12.716 | -0.926 | -0.536 | 2.524 | -0.156 | 3.784 | -1.566 | -4.236 | 1.464 | -1.836 | -3.776 | -0.286 | -0.446 | -0.356 | 3.494 | 4.984 | 12.716 | Toronto FC |
| Vancouver Whitecaps | 13.016 | 2.134 | 1.924 | -0.016 | -1.546 | -1.296 | 1.334 | -0.426 | -1.106 | 0.194 | 0.594 | -0.816 | 0.584 | 0.464 | 4.914 | -0.316 | 13.016 | Vancouver Whitecaps |
| Most Bias VS | (+) | 3.112 | 2.147 | 2.524 | 1.342 | 3.784 | 1.334 | 4.381 | 1.715 | 3.002 | 4.551 | 2.139 | 2.04 | 1.587 | 5.456 | 4.984 | (+) | Most Bias VS |
| Most Bias FOR | (-) | -2.663 | -1.971 | -2.303 | -1.546 | -1.741 | -1.566 | -4.371 | -1.234 | -1.836 | -3.776 | -1.476 | -1.865 | -1.78 | -5.893 | -3.718 | (-) | Most Bias FOR |
- Most season bias For: Massey with Chicago Fire off by 7.31 better than average (product of few rankings), In On It would be next with LA Galaxy 5.68 higher than average.
- Most season bias Against: Monkey Power Rankings with Seattle Sounders 6.03 worse than average.
- Least season bias For: Goal.com with Real Salt Lake 0.006 better than average, but among active sites MLS has Vancouver Whitecaps 0.007 better than average.
- Least season bias Against: Blue Testament with FC Dallas 0.009 worse than average.
| Team / Site | AVG | Jeff Sagarin | Five-Thirty-Eight | Massey | ESPN | Soc. Amer | MLS | MLS Fant. Boss | Reddit /r/mls | Mane Land | Philly Soc. Page | MLS Multiplex | Dallas News | Pro Soc. USA | Who Scored | Couch Metrics | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta United | 2.258 | 2.15 | 1.26 | 2.18 | 1.69 | 2.59 | 1.94 | 1.69 | 2.06 | 4.33 | 2.06 | 2.27 | 2.1 | 1.56 | 4.54 | 1.04 | 2.258 |
| Chicago Fire | 17.654 | 15.79 | 18.35 | 17.82 | 18.5 | 18.06 | 18.68 | 17.17 | 18.24 | 17.24 | 17.58 | 17.83 | 17.7 | 19.24 | 18.21 | 18.26 | 17.654 |
| Colorado Rapids | 20.757 | 19.91 | 21.06 | 20.44 | 21.47 | 19.19 | 21.09 | 20.76 | 21.18 | 21.3 | 20.71 | 19.33 | 19.5 | 20.24 | 20.96 | 21.13 | 20.757 |
| Columbus Crew | 7.794 | 7.5 | 8 | 8.47 | 6.5 | 7.91 | 7.29 | 7.48 | 6.56 | 7.21 | 7.61 | 7.8 | 9.73 | 7.96 | 13.25 | 9.26 | 7.794 |
| D.C. United | 17.043 | 14.38 | 17.71 | 14.74 | 18 | 17.66 | 16.85 | 18.59 | 17.29 | 17.36 | 16.16 | 18 | 18.9 | 16.4 | 17.54 | 18.48 | 17.043 |
| FC Dallas | 7.068 | 7.59 | 6.59 | 6.29 | 8.41 | 6.25 | 6.97 | 7 | 7.09 | 8.12 | 8.29 | 6.9 | 7.47 | 6.08 | 5.46 | 3.35 | 7.068 |
| Houston Dynamo | 12.253 | 10.21 | 13.41 | 14.12 | 11.72 | 11.56 | 12.47 | 12.72 | 12 | 10.85 | 14.71 | 12.43 | 12.27 | 13.84 | 10 | 13.3 | 12.253 |
| Los Angeles FC | 5.945 | 8.26 | 5.82 | 4.44 | 6 | 5.66 | 6.18 | 5.59 | 5.79 | 6.76 | 3.61 | 6.2 | 6.37 | 6.48 | 3.86 | 5.26 | 5.945 |
| L.A. Galaxy | 12.029 | 13.35 | 11.21 | 11.38 | 12 | 10.97 | 11.24 | 16.41 | 11.21 | 11.18 | 16.58 | 12.5 | 10.9 | 11.76 | 11.25 | 10.61 | 12.029 |
| Minnesota United | 18.385 | 19.91 | 19.53 | 18.85 | 17.38 | 17.84 | 18.71 | 20 | 17.44 | 19.52 | 19.16 | 17.6 | 17.33 | 17.96 | 19.86 | 16.87 | 18.385 |
| Montreal Impact | 16.1 | 16.35 | 16.85 | 15.65 | 16.28 | 16.16 | 15.06 | 17.55 | 16.15 | 14.52 | 16.61 | 17.03 | 15.3 | 14.32 | 15.43 | 16.48 | 16.1 |
| N.E. Revolution | 13.431 | 12 | 14.06 | 12.56 | 14.34 | 11.69 | 14.59 | 13.31 | 14.24 | 14.52 | 12.94 | 13.07 | 12.6 | 13.96 | 12.29 | 12.91 | 13.431 |
| New York FC | 4.348 | 3.21 | 3.35 | 4.12 | 4.84 | 4.72 | 5.53 | 3.24 | 4.41 | 4.85 | 5.19 | 5.33 | 3.77 | 5.8 | 4.54 | 4.35 | 4.348 |
| New York RB | 3.259 | 2.62 | 3.06 | 4.03 | 2.81 | 4.31 | 2.94 | 2.66 | 3.09 | 3 | 3.1 | 3.03 | 2.6 | 2.88 | 1.82 | 3.09 | 3.259 |
| Orlando SC | 17.946 | 19.85 | 18.82 | 19.59 | 17.13 | 17.59 | 17.65 | 20.45 | 17.41 | 17.42 | 18.39 | 16.47 | 18.13 | 16.28 | 17.96 | 17.13 | 17.946 |
| Philadelphia Union | 13.69 | 14.85 | 13.09 | 14.21 | 14.03 | 13.53 | 12.85 | 14.28 | 12.94 | 14.09 | 13.13 | 14.27 | 15.73 | 13.64 | 13.93 | 14.26 | 13.69 |
| Portland Timbers | 9.195 | 8.32 | 7.35 | 8.56 | 9.75 | 8.69 | 9.26 | 8.41 | 10.91 | 9.06 | 7.39 | 9.63 | 7.33 | 10.12 | 9.14 | 6.48 | 9.195 |
| Real Salt Lake | 13.448 | 16.56 | 12.62 | 12.41 | 13.47 | 12.81 | 13.82 | 13.38 | 13.59 | 16.45 | 12.32 | 12.93 | 15.17 | 13.6 | 11.29 | 11.65 | 13.448 |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 20.143 | 19.59 | 22.29 | 20.65 | 19.94 | 20.25 | 20.18 | 20.72 | 19.56 | 19.15 | 21.48 | 19.97 | 21.03 | 20.96 | 14.25 | 22.74 | 20.143 |
| Seattle Sounders | 12.061 | 11.88 | 10.09 | 11.29 | 12.13 | 14.38 | 12.32 | 7.69 | 13.41 | 10.3 | 9.29 | 14.2 | 11.17 | 12.6 | 14.75 | 13.48 | 12.061 |
| Sporting Kansas City | 5.142 | 4.76 | 4.65 | 6 | 5.66 | 5.97 | 4.88 | 5.79 | 4.88 | 4.67 | 7.16 | 4.37 | 5.03 | 4.44 | 1.36 | 5.48 | 5.142 |
| Toronto FC | 12.716 | 11.79 | 12.18 | 15.24 | 12.56 | 16.5 | 11.15 | 8.48 | 14.18 | 10.88 | 8.94 | 12.43 | 12.27 | 12.36 | 16.21 | 17.7 | 12.716 |
| Vancouver Whitecaps | 13.016 | 15.15 | 14.94 | 13 | 11.47 | 11.72 | 14.35 | 12.59 | 11.91 | 13.21 | 13.61 | 12.2 | 13.6 | 13.48 | 17.93 | 12.7 | 13.016 |
