Wasatch Soccer SentinelHere's a reminder of the Power Ranking "Guidelines":
"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? This list is designed to tell you who we feel is most likely to win that match-up. All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"
-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk. 3/11/14
Sites Used:
- Who Scored (whoscored.com)
- Jeff Sagarin (sagarin.com/sports/soccer.htm)
- Sports Club Stats (www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html)
- Sports Illustrated (www.soccer.si.com)
- ESPN (espnfc.us/major-league-soccer)
- SoccerAmerica (socceramerica.com)
- Major League Soccer (www.mlssoccer.com/news/power-rankings)
- The Mane Land (themaneland.com)
- Soccer By Ives (sbisoccer.com/sbi-mls-power-rankings)
- Reddit user/FlyingCarsArePlanes (User analytic ranking)
- Reddit r/MLS (reddit.com/r/mls)
- MLS Fantasy Boss (mlsfantasyboss.com)
- The Score (thescore.com/mls/news)
- Power Rankings & More (powerrankingsandmore.com/tag/mls)
- Seattle Times (seattletimes.com/author/matt-pentz)
- Hot Footy (hotfooty.com/major-league-soccer)
- Sportify (sportify.io/category/analysis)
- Black & Red United (blackandredunited.com)
- CSN Chicago (csnchicago.com/chicago-fire - bi-weekly)
- Inonit.com (inotit.com)
You may notice several 'team specific' sites used; yes they will at times be a bit more biased for/against certain teams, as such the averages use the Olympic Method of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and averaging the rest to compensate for possible bias. The 'analytic' sites that are based on numbers make up a control group since they are based on performance and/or results rather than opinion. Each week I'll list the sites closest and furthest from average to show which are more biased than others.
As with previous years, if you know of a site that I have not listed, please let me know in the comments below and I'll add it!
Weekly Power Ranking Averages
Using the "Olympic" method of dropping the highest / lowest scores, and averaging the rest.
Wk 29
Wk 28
Wk 27
Team
Wk29
Avg
Wk28
Avg
Wk27
Avg
Worst
Best
1
2
2
Dallas
1.89
2.18
2.28
5
1
2
1
1
Toronto
2.17
2.00
1.94
5
1
3
4
5
New York RB
2.72
3.94
4.44
6
1
4
3
3
Los Angeles
4.44
2.65
2.72
10
2
5
6
6
New York FC
4.83
5.59
6.22
11
2
6
5
4
Colorado
5.22
4.71
4.17
7
3
7
8
7
Salt Lake
8.50
8.35
6.61
15
6
7
10
10
Kansas City
8.50
10.24
10.06
12
6
9
11
14
Seattle
9.11
11.29
12.83
14
3
10
9
8
Philadelphia
9.50
9.47
8.94
12
6
11
12
12
D. C. U.
10.56
12.24
12.39
13
5
12
7
9
Portland
11.44
8.24
9.94
14
8
13
14
11
Montreal
14.11
13.24
10.44
19
10
14
17
18
Houston
14.89
16.76
17.89
19
10
15
13
16
New England
15.11
13.18
16.22
20
10
16
19
20
Columbus
15.22
17.94
19.50
18
11
17
15
15
San Jose
17.00
15.06
15.56
19
13
18
18
17
Vancouver
17.28
17.71
16.28
20
14
19
16
13
Orlando
17.83
15.76
12.83
20
15
20
20
19
Chicago
19.78
19.59
18.56
20
12
- Largest Rise: Kansas City, Houston, Columbus +3
- Largest Fall: Portland -5
Analytic Site Average
For those interested in seeing how the Analytic Sites differ, here's their averages alone.
Wk29
Wk28
Wk27
Team
Wk29
Avg
Wk28
Avg
Wk27
Avg
Difference
1
3
3
New York RB
2.00
2.57
2.71
-2
2
2
2
Toronto
2.57
2.43
2.29
0
3
4
4
Dallas
2.71
3.29
3.29
+2
4
1
1
Los Angeles
3.71
2.00
1.71
0
5
5
5
Colorado
5.43
5.14
4.71
-1
6
6
6
New York FC
6.29
6.43
7.14
+1
7
9
10
Kansas City
8.29
9.86
9.80
0
8
12
14
Seattle
8.56
11.29
12.86
-1
9
9
11
D. C. U.
8.57
9.86
10.71
-2
10
8
9
Philadelphia
9.86
9.71
9.71
0
11
11
7
Salt Lake
11.00
10.00
8.57
+4
12
7
8
Portland
11.43
8.29
8.86
0
13
15
16
Houston
13.43
15.00
16.71
-1
14
18
18
Columbus
14.14
17.57
18.86
-2
15
14
12
Montreal
14.71
14.57
10.86
+2
16
13
15
San Jose
16.00
13.86
15.29
-1
17
18
16
Vancouver
17.29
17.57
16.71
-1
18
16
13
Orlando
17.43
15.71
11.71
-1
19
17
20
New England
17.71
16.43
18.43
+4
20
20
19
Chicago
18.57
18.29
17.29
0
Site Evaluations
Each site's ranking is compared to the weekly averages above. The best and worst # of matches is indicated. Team bias column shows what team the site shows the highest average for/against (including Preseason ranking).
Site
Exact
1
off
2
off
3
off
4
off
5+
off
Worst
most
bias vs
most
bias for
Who Scored
3
4
6
1
2
4
CHI/RSL
VAN -5.74
CHI +5.50
Jeff Sagarin
5
8
3
2
1
1
NER
NYFC -2.53
HOU +2.67
Sports Club Stats
8
5
2
3
1
1
HOU
POR -4.60
NYFC +2.39
Sports Illustrated
6
8
3
1
0
2
NER/SKC
COL -2.06
SEA +3.16
ESPN
4
5
9
0
1
1
LAG
RSL -2.88
POR +2.76
Soccer America
5
5
7
2
1
0
RSL
NYRB -0.97
CHI +1.60
Major League Soccer
6
10
3
1
0
0
SKC
LAG -1.67
TFC +2.05
The Mane Land
7
6
6
1
0
0
COL
PHI -2.45
VAN +2.39
Soccer By Ives
8
7
2
2
1
0
VAN
COL -1.41
SEA +2.20
Reddit u/FlyingCarsArePlanes
6
7
3
1
1
2
RSL
RSL -3.12
POR +2.71
Reddit r/MLS
12
7
1
0
0
0
POR
DCU -1.21
VAN +0.72
MLS Fantasy Boss
4
3
7
4
1
1
MTL
PHI -3.84
POR +5.72
The Score
4
10
4
1
1
0
VAN
COL -1.68
VAN +2.01
Power Rankings & More
11
7
2
0
0
0
HOU/LAG
TFC -2.09
NER +2.05
Seattle Times
8
8
3
1
0
0
CLB
NYRB -0.96
VAN +1.86
Hot Footy
6
3
7
3
0
1
HOU
HNOU -1.72
SKC +1.10
Sportify
3
3
8
2
1
3
RSL
PHI -3.35
NYRB +3.84
Black & Red United
6
5
4
4
1
0
SJE
TFC -3.12
COL +3.38
CSN Chicago
8
8
2
1
1
0
MTL
ORL -1.77
RSL +2.52
In On It
2
10
4
0
2
2
NYFC
NER -4.47
NYRB +5.57
- Most Accurate Site: (best Exact, with 1 off as tiebreaker) Reddit r/MLS with 12 exact matches.
- Least Accurate Site: (most 5+ with 4 and 3 off as tiebreaker): Who Scored with 4 off by 5 or more.
- Site with Worst Bias VS: Who Scored with VAN 5.74 from avg.
- Site with Worst Bias FOR: MLS Fantasy Boss with POR 5.72 places from avg.
5 Year Average
Season ending power rank averaged over the last 5 years (2 years for ORL & NYCFC).
Team
5 Yr
Avg
Wk
28
Wk
27
Wk
26
Wk
25
Wk
24
5.36
5.36
5.36
5.37
5.36
5.35
5.70
5.70
5.69
5.68
5.68
5.67
6.25
6.24
6.23
6.22
6.24
6.25
7.05
7.06
7.07
7.07
7.08
7.09
7.17
7.21
7.25
7.29
7.34
7.38
7.60
7.64
7.66
7.68
7.70
7.72
9.09
9.06
9.02
9.00
8.95
8.91
10.30
10.26
10.22
10.17
10.14
10.09
10.44
10.42
10.43
10.43
10.42
10.40
10.61
10.64
10.66
10.68
10.71
10.74
11.42
11.42
11.42
11.43
11.43
11.44
11.48
11.49
11.49
11.48
11.46
11.59
11.77
11.72
11.67
11.64
11.62
11.59
11.87
11.87
11.86
11.84
11.83
11.83
11.95
11.98
12.01
12.05
12.08
12.11
12.40
12.40
12.42
12.42
12.40
12.36
12.77
12.76
12.75
12.74
12.74
12.75
12.78
12.88
12.96
13.05
13.17
13.30
13.43
13.34
13.28
13.28
13.24
13.20
14.84
14.83
14.82
14.82
14.83
14.83
FIFA-esque Power Ranking
The Weighted Average is calculated using a variation of the "FIFA method" with the current year counting for 100%, and previous years counting for a decreasing amount.
Team
Week
29
Week
28
Week
27
Week
26
Week
25
Week
24
LA Galaxy
83.82
83.85
83.82
83.79
83.81
83.9
FC Dallas
80.73
80.70
80.67
80.65
80.59
80.53
Sporting Kansas City
78.10
78.09
78.13
78.18
78.20
78.25
Real Salt Lake
76.07
76.14
76.21
76.22
76.15
76.09
New York Red Bulls
74.60
74.38
74.19
73.99
73.75
73.51
Seattle Sounders
71.81
71.62
71.49
71.41
71.30
71.21
Vancouver Whitecaps
68.94
69.09
69.26
69.40
69.62
69.81
Portland Timbers
66.48
66.56
66.51
66.52
66.60
66.66
Toronto FC
65.27
65.11
64.95
64.76
64.64
64.49
D.C. United
63.62
63.47
63.37
63.26
63.14
62.98
New York City FC *
62.49
62.30
62.13
61.96
61.71
61.46
Colorado Rapids
62.11
62.11
62.08
62.03
62.07
62.02
San Jose Earthquakes
61.54
61.78
61.97
62.20
62.38
62.60
Orlando City *
61.06
61.24
61.36
61.38
61.45
61.52
Montreal Impact
60.13
60.38
60.62
60.77
60.87
61.00
Columbus Crew SC
59.12
59.09
59.14
59.26
59.32
59.33
New England Revolution
58.72
58.70
58.61
58.63
58.73
58.89
Philadelphia Union
57.55
57.59
57.64
57.67
57.69
57.65
Houston Dynamo
56.09
56.03
56.05
56.10
56.18
56.23
Chicago Fire
44.58
44.62
44.66
44.65
44.60
44.63
- Expansion teams points adjusted to compensate - (median of 9 for missing years)
