Wasatch Soccer Sentinel17 of 20 sites published for Week 25. Reddit /r/MLS ranking will be posting late; thus I opted to run the article without it's inclusion. The Reddit rankings will be added and any changes noted next week.
Here's a reminder of the Power Ranking "Guidelines":
"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? This list is designed to tell you who we feel is most likely to win that match-up. All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"
-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk. 3/11/14
Sites Used:
- Who Scored (whoscored.com)
- Jeff Sagarin (sagarin.com/sports/soccer.htm)
- Sports Club Stats (www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html)
- Sports Illustrated (www.soccer.si.com)
- ESPN (espnfc.us/major-league-soccer)
- SoccerAmerica (socceramerica.com)
- Major League Soccer (www.mlssoccer.com/news/power-rankings)
- The Mane Land (themaneland.com)
- Soccer By Ives (sbisoccer.com/sbi-mls-power-rankings)
- Reddit user/FlyingCarsArePlanes (User analytic ranking)
- Reddit r/MLS (reddit.com/r/mls) *No ranking Wk 25
- MLS Fantasy Boss (mlsfantasyboss.com) *No ranking Wk 25
- The Score (thescore.com/mls/news) *No ranking Wk 24-25
- Power Rankings & More (powerrankingsandmore.com/tag/mls)
- Seattle Times (seattletimes.com/author/matt-pentz)
- Hot Footy (hotfooty.com/major-league-soccer)
- Sportify (sportify.io/category/analysis)
- Black & Red United (blackandredunited.com)
- CSN Chicago (csnchicago.com/chicago-fire)
- Inonit.com (inotit.com)
You may notice several 'team specific' sites used; yes they will at times be a bit more biased for/against certain teams, as such the averages use the Olympic Method of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and averaging the rest to compensate for possible bias. The 'analytic' sites that are based on numbers make up a control group since they are based on performance and/or results rather than opinion. Each week I'll list the sites closest and furthest from average to show which are more biased than others.
As with previous years, if you know of a site that I have not listed, please let me know in the comments below and I'll add it!
Weekly Power Ranking Averages
Using the "Olympic" method of dropping the highest / lowest scores, and averaging the rest - this does mean that it is possible to get an average lower than 20!
Wk25
Wk24
Wk23
Team
Wk25
Avg
Wk24
Avg
Wk23
Avg
Worst
Best
1
1
1
Dallas
1.53
2.67
1.50
5
1
2
2
4
Toronto
3.73
2.87
4.75
8
2
3
3
2
Colorado
4.40
3.67
2.69
9
2
4
6
5
New York RB
4.67
5.60
5.44
8
1
5
7
7
Salt Lake
5.27
7.93
8.56
11
2
6
5
6
New York FC
5.47
3.73
5.94
10
3
7
4
3
Los Angeles
5.93
4.20
2.81
12
1
8
9
9
Philadelphia
7.67
11.00
9.06
10
5
9
10
8
Montreal
10.13
11.53
9.00
11
7
10
8
10
Kansas City
10.67
8.27
10.63
13
7
11
13
12
Portland
11.47
13.07
12.06
12
8
12
14
14
D. C. U.
12.33
14.73
15.06
14
8
13
11
13
Seattle
14.13
11.60
14.19
17
10
14
15
15
Orlando
14.87
15.47
16.13
16
10
15
12
11
San Jose
15.53
11.93
10.94
18
13
16
18
19
Columbus
17.80
19.13
20.06
18
14
17
17
16
Vancouver
18.07
18.60
16.44
19
15
18
16
17
Houston
18.53
17.13
18.38
20
16
19
19
20
Chicago
20.47
19.27
20.44
20
13
20
20
18
New England
20.80
20.40
18.81
20
17
- Largest Rise: New York RB, Salt Lake, Portland, D.C., Columbus +2
- Largest Fall: Los Angeles, San Jose -3
Analytic Site Average
For those interested in seeing how the Analytic Sites differ, here's their averages alone.
Wk25
Team
Wk25
Avg
Difference
1
Toronto
2.33
-1
2
Dallas
2.83
+1
3
Los Angeles
3.00
-4
4
New York RB
3.33
0
5
Colorado
4.50
+2
6
New York FC
6.17
0
7
Philadelphia
7.17
-1
8
Salt Lake
8.00
+3
9
Montreal
8.83
0
10
Kansas City
10.67
0
10
Portland
10.67
+1
12
D. C. U.
10.83
0
13
Seattle
13.83
0
14
Orlando
14.17
0
15
San Jose
14.67
0
16
Columbus
16.83
0
17
Houston
17.00
-1
18
Vancouver
17.17
+1
19
Chicago
17.83
0
20
New England
19.83
0
Site Evaluations
Each site's ranking is compared to the weekly averages above. The best and worst # of matches is indicated. Team bias column shows what team the site shows the highest average for/against (including Preseason ranking).
Site
Exact
1
off
2
off
3
off
4
off
5
off
Worst
most
bias vs
most
bias for
Who Scored
5
6
2
2
2
3
CHI/LAG/RSL
VAN -5.80
CHI +5.72
Jeff Sagarin
8
7
3
1
0
1
LAG
NYFC -2.41
HOU +3.37
Sports Club Stats
6
10
4
0
0
0
4 @ +/-2
POR -4.74
NYFC +2.99
Sports Illustrated
5
8
3
4
0
0
4 @ +/-3
COL -2.21
SEA +3.78
ESPN
7
5
6
0
1
1
LAG
RSL -2.82
POR +3.18
Soccer America
8
6
3
2
0
1
COL
NYRB -1.10
CHI +2.48
Major League Soccer
8
10
2
0
0
0
COL/NYFC
LAG -1.65
TFC +2.65
The Mane Land
4
9
2
4
0
1
LAG
PHI -2.39
VAN +3.46
Soccer By Ives
8
9
2
1
0
0
TFC
COL -1.60
SEA +2.87
Reddit u/FlyingCarsArePlanes
4
8
3
4
0
1
RSL
FCD -2.43
CLB +3.91
Reddit r/MLS
NA
DCU -0.71
VAN +1.44
MLS Fantasy Boss
NA
PHI -3.81
POR +6.52
The Score
NA
COL -1.78
VAN +2.48
Power Rankings & More
3
10
4
2
0
1
TFC
TFC -2.06
NER +2.66
Seattle Times
8
4
6
2
0
0
RSL/TFC
LAG -0.73
VAN +2.19
Hot Footy
9
5
1
4
0
0
4 @ +/-3
NYRB -1.36
SKC +1.85
Sportify
5
7
5
3
0
0
COL/NYRB/SJE
PHI -2.89
NYRB +3.87
Black & Red United
5
4
6
3
1
1
TFC
TFC -3.31
COL +3.93
CSN Chicago
8
11
0
1
0
0
RSL
ORL -1.71
SEA +3.18
In On It
8
6
3
0
2
1
LAG
NER -3.91
NYRB +6.14
- Most Accurate Site: (best Exact, with 1 off as tiebreaker) Hot Footy with 9 exact matches.
- Least Accurate Site: (most 5+ with 4 and 3 off as tiebreaker): Who Scored with 3 off by 5+.
- Site with Worst Bias VS: Who Scored with VAN 5.80 from avg (improved!).
- Site with Worst Bias FOR: MLS Fantasy Boss with POR 6.52 places from avg (worse!).
- Site with Least Bias VS: Reddit r/MLS with DCU 0.71 places from avg.
- Site with Least Bias FOR: Reddit r/MLS with VAN 1.44 places from avg.
5 Year Average
Season ending power rank averaged over the last 5 years (2 years for ORL & NYCFC).
Team
5 Yr
Avg
Wk
24
Wk
23
Wk
22
Wk
21
Wk
20
5.39
5.37
5.37
5.37
5.38
5.39
5.76
5.75
5.76
5.75
5.73
5.73
6.28
6.29
6.28
6.26
6.25
6.23
7.10
7.11
7.11
7.13
7.14
7.17
7.39
7.44
7.49
7.53
7.57
7.63
7.83
7.85
7.89
7.90
7.91
7.88
9.04
8.99
8.94
8.91
8.88
8.67
10.19
10.14
10.12
10.10
10.08
10.04
10.49
10.48
10.45
10.43
10.42
10.40
10.82
10.85
10.87
10.87
10.87
10.86
11.44
11.45
11.46
11.49
11.52
11.54
11.59
11.57
11.57
11.56
11.54
11.52
11.68
11.65
11.60
11.58
11.57
11.55
11.97
11.96
11.95
11.92
11.88
11.84
12.16
12.19
12.23
12.25
12.29
12.29
12.51
12.47
12.43
12.40
12.39
12.39
12.79
12.79
12.77
12.76
12.73
12.70
13.33
13.45
13.62
13.76
13.91
14.11
13.50
13.46
13.40
13.33
13.23
13.18
14.97
14.96
14.97
14.96
14.94
14.93
FIFA-esque Power Ranking
The Weighted Average is calculated using a variation of the "FIFA method" with the current year counting for 100%, and previous years counting for a decreasing amount.
Team
Week
25
Week
24
Week
23
Week
22
Week
21
Week
20
LA Galaxy
83.69
83.78
83.80
83.77
83.74
83.68
FC Dallas
80.52
80.45
80.44
80.37
80.28
80.17
Sporting Kansas City
77.79
77.84
77.80
77.86
77.96
77.95
Real Salt Lake
75.93
75.88
75.95
76.05
76.10
76.17
New York Red Bulls
73.46
73.23
73.00
72.76
72.57
72.30
Seattle Sounders
70.65
70.58
73.38
70.29
70.28
70.41
Vancouver Whitecaps
69.19
69.41
69.67
69.85
69.98
70.04
Portland Timbers
66.22
66.30
66.44
66.55
66.58
66.68
Toronto FC
64.24
64.08
63.89
63.75
63.59
63.58
D.C. United
62.57
62.41
62.34
62.30
62.31
62.35
San Jose Earthquakes
62.12
62.37
62.46
62.54
62.68
62.88
Colorado Rapids
62.01
61.97
61.89
61.76
61.62
61.51
New York City FC *
61.39
61.15
60.81
60.54
60.23
59.83
Orlando City *
60.92
61.00
61.12
61.27
61.46
61.56
Montreal Impact
60.58
60.73
60.95
61.07
61.12
61.20
Columbus Crew SC
58.61
58.64
58.72
58.86
59.05
59.24
New England Revolution
58.16
58.35
58.55
58.69
58.75
58.76
Philadelphia Union
57.45
57.42
57.55
57.60
57.74
57.88
Houston Dynamo
55.56
55.63
55.63
55.70
55.79
55.89
Chicago Fire
43.89
43.94
43.93
43.98
44.05
44.09
- Expansion teams points adjusted to compensate - (median of 9 for missing years)
