Wasatch Soccer Sentinel16 of 19 sites published for Week 22. One new site added - CSN Chicago which is a bi-weekly ranking; I've added their past ranks to the averages will be included until the end of the season.
Here's a reminder of the Power Ranking "Guidelines":
"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? This list is designed to tell you who we feel is most likely to win that match-up. All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"
-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk. 3/11/14
Sites Used:
- Who Scored (whoscored.com)
- Jeff Sagarin (sagarin.com/sports/soccer.htm)
- Sports Club Stats (www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html)
- Sports Illustrated (www.soccer.si.com)
- ESPN (espnfc.us/major-league-soccer)
- SoccerAmerica (socceramerica.com)
- Major League Soccer (www.mlssoccer.com/news/power-rankings)
- The Mane Land (themaneland.com)
- Soccer By Ives (sbisoccer.com/sbi-mls-power-rankings)
- Reddit user/FlyingCarsArePlanes (User analytic ranking)
- Reddit r/MLS (reddit.com/r/mls)
- MLS Fantasy Boss (mlsfantasyboss.com) *No ranking Wk 22
- The Score (thescore.com/mls/news)
- Seattle Times (seattletimes.com/author/matt-pentz)
- Power Rankings & More (powerrankingsandmore.com/tag/mls)
- Hot Footy (hotfooty.com/major-league-soccer)
- Sportify (sportify.io/category/analysis) *No ranking Wk 22
- Black & Red United (blackandredunited.com)
- CSN Chicago (csnchicago.com/chicago-fire) *No ranking Wk 22
You may notice several 'team specific' sites used; yes they will at times be a bit more biased for/against certain teams, as such the averages use the Olympic Method of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and averaging the rest to compensate for possible bias. The 'analytic' sites that are based on numbers make up a control group since they are based on performance and/or results rather than opinion. Each week I'll list the sites closest and furthest from average to show which are more biased than others.
As with previous years, if you know of a site that I have not listed, please let me know in the comments below and I'll add it!
Weekly Power Ranking Averages
Using the "Olympic" method of dropping the highest / lowest scores, and averaging the rest. This does mean that it is possible to get an average lower than 20! For previous weeks I've just rounded it up to "20", but for going forward I will list averages as they are.
Wk22
Wk21
Wk20
Team
Wk22
Avg
Wk21
Avg
Wk20
Avg
Worst
Best
1
1
2
Dallas
1.29
1.25
2.00
4
1
2
3
1
Colorado
2.93
3.56
1.86
5
1
3
2
3
Los Angeles
3.07
2.31
2.57
5
1
4
8
11
Toronto
4.43
7.88
10.21
7
2
5
4
6
New York FC
5.50
4.38
7.07
8
3
6
5
4
New York RB
6.79
5.81
5.43
11
3
7
6
5
Montreal
7.14
7.75
5.93
8
6
8
6
7
Salt Lake
7.64
7.75
9.21
12
5
9
11
9
Portland
9.86
11.44
9.50
12
7
10
10
8
Philadelphia
11.21
10.94
9.43
14
8
11
9
10
Kansas City
11.36
8.81
10.07
12
9
12
12
13
San Jose
12.29
12.94
12.79
15
9
13
13
12
Vancouver
14.86
13.31
12.07
19
12
14
18
19
Seattle
16.00
18.75
20.14
17
13
15
14
15
Orlando
16.43
14.19
16.36
18
11
16
16
16
D. C. U.
16.50
17.13
17.29
18
9
17
15
14
New England
16.86
15.63
15.00
19
13
18
17
17
Houston
18.64
18.63
18.36
20
14
19
20
18
Columbus
20.64
20.44
18.93
20
17
20
19
20
Chicago
20.79
19.94
20.57
20
16
- Largest Rise: Toronto, Seattle +4
- Largest Fall: Kansas City, New England -2
Site Evaluations
Each site's ranking is compared to the weekly averages above. The best and worst # of matches is indicated. Team bias column shows what team the site shows the highest average for/against (including Preseason ranking).
Site
Exact
1
off
2
off
3
off
4
off
5+
off
Furthest
off
most
bias vs
most
bias for
Who Scored
3
6
6
0
3
2
DCU
VAN -6.41
DCU +5.55
Jeff Sagarin
7
7
3
3
0
0
3@+/-3
POR -2.44
HOU +3.39
Sports Club Stats
4
9
4
3
0
0
3@+/-3
POR -5.26
CHI +3.09
Sports Illustrated
9
6
1
2
2
0
DCU/NER
COL -2.80
SEA +3.73
ESPN
5
9
2
1
3
0
3@+/-4
RSL -2.95
POR +3.65
Soccer America
4
11
2
3
0
0
3@+/-3
NYRB -1.39
CHI +2.63
Major League Soccer
8
10
2
0
0
0
ORL/TFC
COL -1.69
TFC +2.74
The Mane Land
8
9
2
1
0
0
PHI
PHI -2.51
VAN +3.62
Soccer By Ives
7
11
1
1
0
0
DCU
COL -2.05
SEA +2.88
Reddit u/FlyingCarsArePlanes
3
6
6
4
1
0
VAN
FCD -2.55
CLB +4.47
Reddit r/MLS
9
6
5
0
0
0
5@+/-2
DCU -0.55
VAN +1.18
MLS Fantasy Boss
NA
PHI -3.88
POR +6.61
The Score
9
3
7
0
0
1
NYRB
COL -1.78
VAN +2.04
Power Rankings & More
7
11
1
1
0
0
RSL
TFC -1.80
NYFC +2.66
Seattle Times
10
7
2
1
0
0
RSL
COL -0.91
VAN +2.33
Hot Footy
6
7
2
5
0
0
5@+/-3
POR -1.46
SKC +2.09
Sportify
NA
PHI -2.50
POR +3.24
Black & Red United
3
9
1
7
0
0
7@+/-3
TFC -4.03
COL +4.29
CSN Chicago
NA
ORL -1.94
SEA +3.39
- Most Accurate Site: (best Exact, with 1 off as tiebreaker) Seattle Times: with 10 exact matches.
- Least Accurate Site: (most 5+ with 4 and 3 off as tiebreaker): Who Scored with 2 off by 5+.
- Site with Worst Bias VS: Who Scored with VAN 6.41 from avg.
- Site with Worst Bias FOR: MLS Fantasy Boss with POR 6.61 places from avg.
- Site with Least Bias VS: Reddit r/MLS with COL 0.55 places from avg.
- Site with Least Bias FOR: Reddit r/MLS with VAN 1.18 places from avg.
5 Year Average
Season ending power rank averaged over the last 5 years.
Team
5 Yr
Avg*
Wk 21
Wk 20
Wk 19
Wk 18
5.37
5.38
5.39
5.40
5.41
5.75
5.73
5.73
5.72
5.69
6.26
6.25
6.23
6.20
6.18
7.13
7.14
7.17
7.18
7.20
7.53
7.57
7.63
7.69
7.72
7.90
7.91
7.88
7.84
7.80
8.91
8.88
8.67
8.87
8.88
10.10
10.08
10.04
10.00
9.96
10.43
10.42
10.40
10.40
10.42
10.87
10.87
10.86
10.85
10.86
11.49
11.52
11.54
11.82
11.64
11.56
11.54
11.52
11.50
11.48
11.58
11.57
11.55
11.55
11.52
11.92
11.88
11.84
11.82
11.64
12.25
12.29
12.29
12.26
12.22
12.40
12.39
12.39
12.39
12.39
12.76
12.73
12.70
12.69
12.70
13.33
13.23
13.18
13.07
12.94
13.76
13.91
14.11
13.04
14.50
14.96
14.94
14.93
14.92
14.91
FIFA-esque Power Ranking
The Weighted Average is calculated using a variation of the "FIFA method" with the current year counting for 100%, and previous years counting for a decreasing amount.
Team
Week
22
Week
21
Week
20
Week
19
Week
18
LA Galaxy
83.77
83.74
83.68
83.62
83.58
FC Dallas
80.37
80.28
80.17
80.1
80.02
Sporting Kansas City
77.86
77.96
77.95
78.00
78.15
Real Salt Lake
76.05
76.10
76.17
76.32
76.44
New York Red Bulls
72.76
72.57
72.30
72.00
71.84
Seattle Sounders
70.29
70.28
70.41
70.63
70.80
Vancouver Whitecaps
69.85
69.98
70.04
70.50
70.00
Portland Timbers
66.55
66.58
66.68
66.70
66.57
Toronto FC
63.75
63.59
63.58
63.70
63.94
San Jose Earthquakes
62.54
62.68
62.88
63.08
63.28
D.C. United
62.30
62.31
62.35
62.40
62.36
Colorado Rapids
61.76
61.62
61.51
61.29
61.02
Orlando City *
61.27
61.46
61.56
61.78
62.05
Montreal Impact
61.07
61.12
61.20
61.20
61.38
New York City FC *
60.54
60.23
59.83
59.54
59.06
Columbus Crew SC
58.86
59.05
59.24
59.38
59.58
New England Revolution
58.69
58.75
58.76
58.74
58.76
Philadelphia Union
57.60
57.74
57.88
57.96
57.87
Houston Dynamo
55.70
55.79
55.89
55.98
56.10
Chicago Fire
43.98
44.05
44.09
44.16
44.22
- Expansion teams points adjusted to compensate - (median of 9 for missing years)
