Wasatch Soccer Sentinel16 of 18 sites published for Week 20. Sorry for missing the week 19 article, I was on vacation to attend the RSL vs SJE game and didn't have reliable internet where we were staying. The numbers for last week are included below.
Here's a reminder of the Power Ranking "Guidelines":
"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? This list is designed to tell you who we feel is most likely to win that match-up. All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"
-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk. 3/11/14
Sites Used:
- Who Scored (whoscored.com)
- Jeff Sagarin (sagarin.com/sports/soccer.htm)
- Sports Club Stats (www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html)
- Sports Illustrated (www.soccer.si.com)
- ESPN (espnfc.us/major-league-soccer)
- SoccerAmerica (socceramerica.com)
- Major League Soccer (www.mlssoccer.com/news/power-rankings)
- The Mane Land (themaneland.com)
- Soccer By Ives (sbisoccer.com/sbi-mls-power-rankings)
- Reddit user/FlyingCarsArePlanes (User analytic ranking) *No ranking Wk 19-20
- Reddit r/MLS (reddit.com/r/mls)
- MLS Fantasy Boss (mlsfantasyboss.com)
- The Score (thescore.com/mls/news)
- Seattle Times (seattletimes.com/author/matt-pentz) *No ranking Wk 20
- Power Rankings & More (powerrankingsandmore.com/tag/mls)
- Hot Footy (hotfooty.com/major-league-soccer)
- Sportify (sportify.io/category/analysis)
- Black & Red United (blackandredunited.com)
You may notice several 'team specific' sites used; yes they will at times be a bit more biased for/against certain teams, as such the averages use the Olympic Method of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and averaging the rest to compensate for possible bias. The 'analytic' sites that are based on numbers make up a control group since they are based on performance and/or results rather than opinion. Each week I'll list the sites closest and furthest from average to show which are more biased than others.
As with previous years, if you know of a site that I have not listed, please let me know in the comments below and I'll add it!
Weekly Power Ranking Averages
Using the "Olympic" method of dropping the highest / lowest scores, and averaging the rest.
Wk20
Wk19
Wk18
Team
Wk20
Avg
Wk19
Avg
Wk18
Avg
Worst
Best
Range
1
1
2
Colorado
1.86
1.53
2.20
4
1
3
2
2
1
Dallas
2.00
2.00
1.33
3
1
2
3
3
3
Los Angeles
2.57
2.87
3.00
3
1
2
4
8
10
New York RB
5.43
8.60
10.00
9
4
5
5
9
6
Montreal
5.93
9.47
6.80
12
4
8
6
4
7
New York FC
7.07
4.53
7.20
13
5
8
7
7
4
Salt Lake
9.21
8.40
6.13
15
4
11
8
5
5
Philadelphia
9.43
6.20
6.60
13
6
7
9
6
9
Portland
9.50
6.80
8.67
13
3
10
10
12
8
Kansas City
10.07
11.87
8.60
13
6
7
11
13
11
Toronto
10.21
12.33
11.07
13
4
9
12
10
12
Vancouver
12.07
11.20
13.00
18
8
10
13
11
13
San Jose
12.79
11.67
13.73
19
8
11
14
15
16
New England
15.00
16.36
16.60
19
12
7
15
16
15
Orlando
16.36
16.60
16.20
17
12
5
16
14
14
D. C. U.
17.29
15.60
15.87
19
11
8
17
17
17
Houston
18.36
18.73
17.00
20
13
7
18
19
19
Columbus
18.93
19.80
19.67
19
15
4
19
18
18
Seattle
19.99
18.87
19.60
20
14
6
20
20
20
Chicago
20.00
20.00
20.00
20
17
3
- Largest Rise: New York Red Bulls, Montreal +4
- Largest Fall: Portland -3
- Largest Range: Salt Lake, San Jose (11)
- Smallest Range: Dallas, Los Angeles (2)
Site Evaluations
Each site's ranking is compared to the weekly averages above. The best and worst # of matches is indicated. Team bias column shows what team the site shows the highest average for/against (including Preseason ranking).
Site
Exact
1 off
2 off
3 off
4
off
5+
off
Furthest off
most bias vs
most bias for
Who Scored
3
7
2
2
1
5
RSL
VAN -6.50
CHI +5.63
Jeff Sagarin
5
7
2
3
0
3
NYFC/TFC
NYFC -2.57
HOU +3.55
Sports Club Stats
6
6
3
4
1
0
TFC
POR -5.70
CHI +3.31
Sports Illustrated
4
9
4
3
0
0
3@ +/-3
COL -3.34
SEA +4.10
ESPN
9
4
1
1
4
1
NYFC
RSL -3.16
POR +3.98
Soccer America
4
10
2
2
1
1
RSL
NYRB -1.77
CHI +2.68
Major League Soccer
5
6
6
0
2
1
TFC
LAG -1.75
TFC +2.70
The Mane Land
3
7
6
2
1
1
RSL
PHI -2.61
VAN +3.62
Soccer By Ives
5
7
3
3
2
0
POR/SKC
COL -2.41
SEA +3.16
Reddit u/FlyingCarsArePlanes
NA
FCD -2.72
CLB +4.77
Reddit r/MLS
13
5
2
0
0
0
COL/DCU
COL -0.61
NYFC +1.16
MLS Fantasy Boss
NA
PHI -4.09
POR +6.58
The Score
10
4
5
0
1
0
NYRB
COL -2.05
VAN +2.00
Power Rankings & More
11
6
3
0
0
0
3@ +/-3
TFC -2.08
NYFC +2.84
Seattle Times
NA
COL -1.16
VAN +2.44
Hot Footy
6
8
3
1
1
1
NYRB
POR -1.36
SKC +2.23
Sportify
3
7
7
1
0
2
RSL
SKC -2.49
COL +3.46
Black & Red United
9
4
3
4
0
0
4@ +/-3
TFC -4.55
COL +4.94
- Most Accurate Site: (best Exact, with 1 off as tiebreaker) Reddit r/MLS: with 11 exact matches.
- Least Accurate Site: (most 5+ with 4 and 3 off as tiebreaker): Who Scored with 5 off by 5+.
- Site with Worst Bias VS: Who Scored with VAN 6.50 from avg.
- Site with Worst Bias FOR: MLS Fantasy Boss with POR 6.58 places from avg.
- Site with Least Bias VS: Reddit r/MLS with COL 0.61 places from avg.
- Site with Least Bias FOR: Reddit r/MLS with NYCFC 1.16 places from avg.
FIFA-esque Power Ranking
The 5 Year Weighted Average is calculated using a variation of the "FIFA method" with the current year counting for 100%, and previous years counting for a decreasing amount. The table is ordered based on the Weighted Points.
Team
Week
20
Week
19
Week
18
5 Yr
Avg*
Weighted
Pts*
Week
19
Week
18
3.68
3.73
3.78
5.39
83.67
83.61
83.57
3.38
3.45
3.53
7.17
80.17
80.10
80.02
9.11
9.07
8.91
5.73
77.94
77.99
78.14
6.39
6.23
6.11
6.24
76.12
76.27
76.40
New York Red Bulls
11.28
11.58
11.74
7.62
72.32
72.01
71.86
16.10
15.87
15.71
7.90
70.33
70.54
70.72
12.00
11.99
12.04
8.87
70.03
70.03
69.99
9.23
9.20
9.34
10.41
66.65
66.66
66.54
8.08
7.96
7.72
12.30
63.54
63.66
63.90
8.84
8.62
8.45
10.03
62.89
63.09
63.28
16.23
16.18
16.22
10.86
62.35
62.40
62.36
12.11
11.88
11.62
10.66
61.60
61.82
62.09
6.06
6.28
6.55
11.54
61.49
61.27
61.00
6.01
6.02
5.83
11.55
61.20
61.20
61.38
12.73
13.03
13.50
11.04
59.85
59.55
59.08
16.37
16.23
16.03
11.85
59.23
59.36
59.57
15.51
15.54
15.50
12.39
58.74
58.71
58.75
7.91
7.83
7.93
12.69
57.92
58.00
57.90
16.55
16.46
16.33
11.52
55.90
55.99
56.12
19.18
19.11
19.05
14.94
44.07
44.14
44.20
- Expansion teams points adjusted to compensate - (median of 9 for missing years)
