Power Ranking Averages for Week 2

Archived: This article was archived from RSL Soapbox and may contain outdated information.

Original publish date: March 17, 2016

Power Ranking Averages for Week 2

17 sites published, and totals changed for wk 1 after many late and new entries!

March 17, 2016

MLS Power Ranking Averages - Week 2

A lot of late results came in the day after the last article; the averages ended up with 22 sites! Wk 1 totals and order have been adjusted - Portland takes first for week 1!

Here's a reminder of the Power Ranking "Guidelines":

"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? This list is designed to tell you who we feel is most likely to win that match-up. All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"
-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk. 3/11/14

Sites Used:

Who Scored (whoscored.com)
Squawka (squawka.com)
Jeff Sagarin (sagarin.com/sports/soccer.htm)
Sports Club Stats (www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html) - No ranking Wk 2
Football Database (footballdatabase.com/ranking/north-america/1)
Sports Illustrated (www.soccer.si.com)
ESPN (espnfc.us/major-league-soccer)
The Mane Land (themaneland.com)
Major League Soccer (www.mlssoccer.com/news/power-rankings)
Reddit user/FlyingCarsArePlanes (User analytic ranking, posted on reddit.com/r/mls)
NYCFC Blog (skybluesofny.com) - No ranking Wk 2
MLS Fantasy Boss (mlsfantasyboss.com) - No ranking Wk 2
SoccerAmerica (socceramerica.com)
Soccer By Ives (sbisoccer.com/sbi-mls-power-rankings)
Reddit r/MLS (reddit.com/r/mls)
Bleacher Report (bleacherreport.com/mls)
Soccer Information Network (soccerinformationnetwork.com/category/mls-power-rankings/) - No ranking Wk 2
Seattle Times (seattletimes.com/author/matt-pentz)
The Score (thescore.com/mls/news)
Altius Directory (altiusdirectory.com/Sports/mls-power-rankings.php) - No ranking Wk 2
MLSfix (mlsfix.com) - No ranking Wk 2
Hot Footy (hotfooty.com/major-league-soccer)
Power Rankings & More (powerrankingsandmore.com/tag/mls)

You may notice several 'team specific' sites used; yes they will at times be a bit more biased for/against certain teams, as such the averages use the Olympic Method of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and averaging the rest to compensate for possible bias. Each week I'll also be listing the sites closest and furthest from average to show which are more biased than others.

As with previous years, if you know of a site that I have not listed, please let me know in the comments below and I'll add it!

Weekly Power Ranking Averages
Using the "Olympic" method of dropping the highest / lowest scores, and averaging the rest.

Wk2

Wk1

2016
Preseason

Team

Wk2
Avg

Wk1
Avg

2016
Preseason

Worst

Best

Range

Montreal

1.13

6.20

7.85

Kansas City

3.13

6.85

9.00

Portland

4.33

2.35

2.00

Toronto

4.67

5.50

9.69

San Jose

5.80

11.25

13.46

Los Angeles

7.67

3.80

6.08

Houston

8.13

15.25

15.77

Dallas

8.93

2.55

3.46

New York FC

10.53

12.15

14.92

Salt Lake

11.20

14.05

15.23

Columbus

11.93

8.05

3.62

New England

12.40

10.85

10.46

New York RB

14.27

9.00

2.85

Vancouver

15.40

11.30

6.54

Philadelphia

15.80

19.50

17.77

Orlando

15.87

14.00

12.62

Seattle

16.47

11.75

6.92

Colorado

16.67

19.60

19.38

D. C.

19.47

17.15

12.85

Chicago

20.00

19.25

18.92

Largest Rise: Houston +9
Largest Fall: Dallas -6
Largest Range: Toronto & Dallas (15)
Smallest Range: Kansas City (5)

Site Evaluations
Each site's ranking is compared to the weekly averages above. The best and worst # of matches is indicated. Team bias column shows what team the site shows the highest average for/against (including Preseason ranking).

Site

Exact

1 off

2 off

3+ off

Furthest off

most bias vs

most bias for

Who Scored

CHI -9

NYRB +7.86

CHI -9.13

Squawka

COL -9
FCD +9

NYRB +8.36

COL -7.14

Jeff Sagarin

COL -10

CLB +6.01

COL -5.64

Sports Club Stats

NYRB +6.36

NYFC -7.34

Football Database

SEA -14

TFC +11.91

SEA -11.78

Sports Illustrated

3@ +/-4

SJE +2.47

NYRB -5.31

ESPN

NYRB -6

SJE +4.14

NYRB -6.97

The Mane Land

NYRB -6

SJE +5.14

NYRB -6.97

Major League Soccer

NYFC +4

SKC +3.01

VAN -5.35

Reddit u/FlyingCarsArePlanes

3@ +/-4

TFC +4.24

NYRB -4.64

NYCFC Blog

RSL +3.87

CLB -6.49

MLS Fantasy Boss

TFC +8.41

SEA -9.61

Soccer America

3@ +/-7

NYRB +5.86

RSL -4.63

Soccer By Ives

SEA -5

MON +3.33

SEA -5.78

Reddit r/MLS

3@ +/-3

HOU +2.64

ORL -2.94

Bleacher Report

NYRB -7

NYFC +3.16

NYRB -6.14

Soccer Information Network

HOU +4.81

SEA -7.11

Seattle Times

NER +5

NER +2.37

VAN -6.35

The Score

NER -4
NYFC +4

SJE +3.47

NYRB -6.97

Altius Directory

POR +11.66

NYRB -10.64

MLSfix

TFC -4.91

DCU -6.31

Hot Footy

NYRB -4
HOU +4

RSL +2.37

NYRB -3.14

Power Rankings & More

NYRB +7

LAG +3.76

DCU -4.81

Site

Exact

1 off

2 off

3+ off

Furthest off

most bias vs

most bias for

Most Accurate Site: (best Exact, with 1 off as tiebreaker): Hot Footy with 15 within 1
Least Accurate Site: (most 3+ with 2 off as tiebreaker): Power Rankings & More on the 2 off tiebreaker
Site with Worst Bias VS: Football Database (TFC +11.91)
Site with Worst Bias FOR: Football Database (SEA -11.78
Site with Least Bias VS: Seattle Times (NER +2.37), Hot Footy (RSL +2.37)
Site with Least Bias FOR: Reddit/r/MLS (ORL -2.94)

Season Average Power Ranking
The 5 Year Weighted Average is calculated using a variation of the "FIFA method" with the current year counting for 100%, and previous years counting for a decreasing amount. The table is ordered based on the Weighted Points.

Team

Week
2

Week
1

2016

(run. avg)

2015
Avg

2014
Avg

2013
Avg

2012
Avg

Weighted
Pts

Sporting Kansas City

3.13

6.87

4.99

6.35

5.64

4.48

3.07

17.94

LA Galaxy

7.67

3.73

5.74

4.51

5.23

5.15

8.39

18.39

FC Dallas

8.93

2.20

5.74

4.64

6.35

8.58

12.88

22.19

Portland Timbers

4.33

2.27

3.34

9.45

11.64

5.83

15.88

27.46

Seattle Sounders

16.47

11.20

14.11

6.07

2.86

9.38

5.07

27.68

Real Salt Lake

11.20

13.40

12.63

12.43

4.12

4.58

3.70

30.12

Vancouver Whitecaps

15.40

10.87

13.35

5.09

7.98

10.33

8.95

31.32

Toronto FC

4.67

4.93

5.09

9.75

8.97

16.83

17.85

33.47

Columbus Crew SC

11.93

19.13

9.99

8.75

9.60

12.81

11.70

34.40

Montreal Impact

1.13

6.07

3.67

15.06

17.54

5.17

13.99

36.46

San Jose Earthquakes

5.80

4.93

8.53

9.75

8.97

16.83

17.85

36.80

New England Revolution

12.40

10.00

11.63

9.50

9.66

12.52

14.78

37.38

Houston Dynamo

8.13

14.73

11.69

13.81

12.77

7.71

6.75

39.24

D.C. United

19.47

16.47

18.31

5.91

7.49

17.24

7.45

39.73

New York Red Bulls

14.27

7.73

11.64

4.68

10.05

6.52

5.58

40.26

New York City FC *

10.53

11.87

11.34

15.47

40.26

Orlando City *

15.87

13.27

14.94

14.21

42.73

Colorado Rapids

16.67

19.13

18.14

17.38

11.54

9.88

12.85

50.59

Philadelphia Union

15.80

18.33

17.65

18.07

11.85

10.45

15.19

51.82

Chicago Fire

20.00

18.40

19.63

17.71

15.54

14.35

7.91

56.38

Expansion teams points adjusted to compensate - (median of 10 for missing years)

Team High / Low
Best and worst placement for each team in weekly, avg rank total.

Team

Best
Avg

Worst
Avg

Best
Pos

Worst
Pos

Chicago Fire

19.25

20.00

Colorado Rapids

16.67

19.60

Columbus Crew SC

8.05

11.93

D.C. United

17.15

19.47

FC Dallas

2.55

8.93

Houston Dynamo

8.13

15.25

LA Galaxy

3.80

7.67

Montreal Impact

1.13

6.20

New England Revolution

10.85

12.40

New York City FC

10.53

12.15

New York Red Bulls

9.00

14.27

Orlando City

14.00

15.87

Philadelphia Union

15.80

19.50

Portland Timbers

2.35

4.33

Real Salt Lake

11.20

14.05

San Jose Earthquakes

5.80

11.25

Seattle Sounders

11.75

16.47

Sporting Kansas City

3.13

6.85

Toronto FC

4.67

5.50

Vancouver Whitecaps

11.30

15.40

Largest Range (position): 9 (Houston)
Smallest Range (position): 0 (Toronto)
2 teams have been ranked first
2 teams have been ranked last

With only 2 weeks on the books things are very fluid on all tables. As the weeks progress there will be less major jumps.