Wasatch Soccer Sentinel

MLS Power Ranking Averages - Week 1

The First week of the season and a bumper crop of Power Rankings. With the exception of the 'analytic' sites, nearly all the rest based their first week rankings off of their Preseason rankings (which in turn were mostly based on the final 2015 season positions). My numbers for the Preseason Ranking have changed slightly with a few new sites being added.

Most sites tend to come and go, usually lasting about half of the season; I may start with 15+ and end with 7-8, but as long as sites continue to publish their rankings I shall endeavor to average them.

Here's a reminder of the Power Ranking "Guidelines":

"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? This list is designed to tell you who we feel is most likely to win that match-up. All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"
-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk. 3/11/14

Sites Used:

• Who Scored (whoscored.com)
• Jeff Sagarin (sagarin.com/sports/soccer.htm)
• Sports Club Stats (www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html)
• Football Database (footballdatabase.com/ranking/north-america/1)
• ESPN (espnfc.us/major-league-soccer)
• Sports Illustrated (www.soccer.si.com)
• The Mane Land (themaneland.com)
• Major League Soccer (www.mlssoccer.com/news/power-rankings)
• NYCFC Blog (skybluesofny.com)
• Reddit user/FlyingCarsArePlanes (User analytic ranking, posted on reddit.com/r/mls)
• Reddit r/MLS (reddit.com/r/mls)
• SoccerAmerica (socceramerica.com)
• Bleacher Report (bleacherreport.com/mls)
• Soccer By Ives (sbisoccer.com/sbi-mls-power-rankings)
• Seattle Times (seattletimes.com/author/matt-pentz)
• Altus Directory (altiusdirectory.com/Sports/mls-power-rankings.php)
• The Score (thescore.com/mls/news)

You may notice several 'team specific' sites used; yes they will at times be a bit more biased for/against certain teams, as such the averages use the Olympic Method of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and averaging the rest to compensate for possible bias. Each week I'll also be listing the sites closest and furthest from average to show which are more biased than others.

As with previous years, if you know of a site that I have not listed, please let me know in the comments below and I'll add it!

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Weekly Power Ranking Averages
Using the "Olympic" method of dropping the highest / lowest scores, and averaging the rest.

Wk1

2016
Preseason

2015
Wk 34

Team

Wk1
Avg

2016
Preseason

2015
W34 Avg

Worst

Best

Range

1

3

2

Dallas

2.20

3.46

2.00

5

1

4

2

1

4

Portland

2.27

2.00

5.22

15

1

14

3

5

6

Los Angeles

3.73

6.08

6.56

7

1

6

4

10

9

Toronto

4.93

9.69

8.67

16

1

15

5

8

8

Montreal

6.07

7.85

7.11

12

1

11

6

9

10

Kansas City

6.87

9.00

9.44

11

2

9

7

4

3

Columbus

7.07

3.62

3.56

16

3

13

8

2

1

New York RB

7.73

2.85

1.22

19

1

18

9

11

11

New England

10.00

10.46

10.67

13

6

7

10

6

5

Vancouver

10.87

6.54

5.67

17

4

13

11

14

13

San Jose

11.07

13.46

12.44

17

5

12

12

7

7

Seattle

11.20

6.92

7.00

20

2

18

13

15

17

New York FC

11.87

14.92

17.33

18

4

14

14

12

14

Orlando

13.27

12.62

12.44

16

11

5

15

16

15

Salt Lake

13.40

15.23

15.44

18

6

12

16

17

16

Houston

14.73

15.77

15.67

18

9

9

17

13

12

D. C.

16.47

12.85

11.89

19

10

9

18

18

18

Philadelphia

18.33

17.77

17.44

20

16

4

19

19

20

Chicago

18.40

18.92

19.44

20

10

10

20

20

19

Colorado

19.13

19.38

18.78

20

15

5

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Site Evaluations
Each site's ranking is compared to the weekly averages above. The best and worst # of matches is indicated. Team bias column shows what team the site shows the highest average for/against (including Preseason ranking).

Site

Exact

1 off

2 off

3+ off

Furthest off

most bias vs

most bias for

Who Scored

1

5

3

11

NYRB

NYRB +11.3

CHI -8.4

Jeff Sagarin

3

6

4

7

CLB, NYFC

CLB +4.93

SJE -4.07

Sports Club Stats

1

1

2

16

NYRB

NYRB +10.3

NYFC -7.87

Football Database

1

7

3

9

TFC

TFC +12.07

SEA -9.02

ESPN

6

6

1

7

CLB, NYRB, TFC

TFC +5.07

VAN -4.87

Sports Illustrated

5

8

5

2

NER, NYFC

NER +3.0

NYRB -2.73

The Mane Land

6

2

5

7

SJE

SJE +5.43

VAN -4.37

Major League Soccer

5

10

3

2

LAG

LAG +3.77

VAN -4.37

NYCFC Blog

2

10

6

2

HOU, NER

TFC +3.57

CLB -3.57

Reddit r/MLS

8

7

2

3

ORL, SEA, VAN

LAG +3.27

ORL +2.27

Reddit user/FlyingCarsArePlanes

2

8

5

5

MON, TFC, VAN

TFC +6.57

MON -4.07

Soccer America

4

7

3

6

NYRB

NYRB +7.27

NYFC -4.87

Bleacher Report

4

7

3

6

NER

NER +3.00

CLB -3.07

Soccer By Ives

5

10

2

3

CLB, MON, SEA

MON +3.43

SEA -4.7

Seattle Times

5

5

3

7

VAN

NYFC +4.13

VAN -6.87

Altus Directory

5

4

1

10

POR

POR +12.73

NYRB -6.73

The Score

3

7

5

5

NYRB

SKC +4.13

NYRB -6.23

• Most Accurate Site: (best Exact, with 1 off as tiebreaker): Reddit /r/MLS
• Least Accurate Site: (most 3+ with 2 off as tiebreaker): Sports Club Stats
• Site with Worst Bias: Altus Directory (POR +12.73)
• Sites with Least Bias: Sports Illustrated (for/vs below 3.00), Bleacher Report (for/vs below 3.07)

Season Average Power Ranking
The 5 Year Weighted Average is calculated using a variation of the "FIFA method" with the current year counting for 100%, and previous years counting for a decreasing amount. The table is ordered based on the Weighted Points.

Team

Week
1

2016

(run. avg)

2015
Avg

2014
Avg

2013
Avg

2012
Avg

Weighted
Pts

LA Galaxy

3.73

3.73

4.51

5.23

5.15

8.39

16.38

FC Dallas

2.20

2.20

4.64

6.35

8.58

12.88

18.65

Sporting Kansas City

6.87

6.87

6.35

5.64

4.48

3.07

19.82

New York Red Bulls

7.73

7.73

4.68

10.05

6.52

5.58

24.13

Seattle Sounders

11.20

11.20

6.07

2.86

9.38

5.07

24.77

Portland Timbers

2.27

2.27

9.45

11.64

5.83

15.88

26.39

Vancouver Whitecaps

10.87

10.87

5.09

7.98

10.33

8.95

28.84

Real Salt Lake

13.40

13.40

12.43

4.12

4.58

3.70

30.89

Columbus Crew SC

19.13

19.13

8.75

9.60

12.81

11.70

31.48

Toronto FC

4.93

4.93

9.75

8.97

16.83

17.85

33.31

New England Revolution

10.00

10.00

9.50

9.66

12.52

14.78

35.75

D.C. United

16.47

16.47

5.91

7.49

17.24

7.45

37.89

Montreal Impact

6.07

6.07

15.06

17.54

5.17

13.99

38.86

San Jose Earthquakes

4.93

4.93

9.75

8.97

16.83

17.85

39.34

New York City FC *

11.87

11.87

15.47

--

--

--

40.79

Orlando City *

13.27

13.27

14.21

--

--

--

41.06

Houston Dynamo

14.73

14.73

13.81

12.77

7.71

6.75

42.28

Colorado Rapids

19.13

19.13

17.38

11.54

9.88

12.85

51.58

Philadelphia Union

18.33

18.33

18.07

11.85

10.45

15.19

52.50

Chicago Fire

18.40

18.40

17.71

15.54

14.35

7.91

55.15

• Expansion teams points adjusted to compensate - (median of 10 for missing years)

---

Team High / Low
Best and worst placement for each team in weekly, avg rank total.

Team

Weekly
Best

Weekly
Worst

Best
Wk. Avg.

Worst
Wk. Avg.

Chicago Fire

18.40

18.40

18.40

18.40

Colorado Rapids

19.13

19.13

19.13

19.13

Columbus Crew SC

7.07

7.07

7.07

7.07

D.C. United

16.47

16.47

16.47

16.47

FC Dallas

2.20

2.20

2.20

2.20

Houston Dynamo

14.73

14.73

14.73

14.73

LA Galaxy

3.73

3.73

3.73

3.73

Montreal Impact

6.07

6.07

6.07

6.07

New England Revolution

10.00

10.00

10.00

10.00

New York City FC

11.87

11.87

11.87

11.87

New York Red Bulls

7.73

7.73

7.73

7.73

Orlando City

13.27

13.27

13.27

13.27

Philadelphia Union

18.33

18.33

18.33

18.33

Portland Timbers

2.27

2.27

2.27

2.27

Real Salt Lake

13.40

13.40

13.40

13.40

San Jose Earthquakes

11.07

11.07

11.07

11.07

Seattle Sounders

11.20

11.20

11.20

11.20

Sporting Kansas City

6.87

6.87

6.87

6.87

Toronto FC

4.93

4.93

4.93

4.93

Vancouver Whitecaps

10.87

10.87

10.87

10.87

• Largest Range (position): 0
• Smallest Range (position): 0
• 1 team have been ranked first
• 1 team have been ranked last