2023 MLS power ranking averages: Week 4
Sixteen sites published for week 4. No change top and bottom, middle teams mix it up.
16 sites published for week 4. MLS Network has not updated their website, but has published rankings on their Discord. One more site should be added in the next two weeks.
A reminder of what Power Rankings should be (not that every site does, of course):
"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"
— Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk. March 11, 2014.
Sites Used
- Jeff Sagarin
- Five Thirty Eight (Proj. points)
- Who Scored
- ESPN
- Massey
- Sonny Moore Rankings
- Verses Sports Simulator
- [Betting Odds] (multiple sites)
- MLS
- Simmons Ratings
- Reddit r/MLS
- Soccer America
- D-Ratings
- 3rd Degree
- MLS Network
- Broadway Sports
- US Soccer Players (monthly) - No ranking
- Freeborg Power Index - No ranking before wk 5-6.
You may notice the inclusion of 'analytic' sites; they serve to function as a 'control group' to others which are based on opinions. There are also sites included that some will argue are 'prediction rankings' - but that also is a form of Power Ranking (see the quote at the top) since it uses algorithms to calculate a team's likely final position.
Bias for or against certain teams are sometimes an unfortunate feature of power rankings. It can be based on their analytic formula, or the raters preference. In some cases the bias can become extreme - If you feel a site got the ratings wrong for your team I invite you to contact them regarding it. Bias ratings for every site are listed below.
I will typically only remove sites for two reasons.
- Duplicating / copying ratings from another source on the list.
- Failure to update for 6 consecutive weeks. Previous ratings will not be removed, but new ones may or may not be added. I will still periodically check them to see if they have resumed.
All the averages use the Olympic method (I.E. Truncated Mean value) of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and then averaging the rest to reduce bias.
The full spreadsheeet is here.
- Highest Standard Deviation: St. Louis 5.84
- Lowest Standard Deviation: Los Angeles FC 1.02
- Biggest Rise: Toronto up 7
- Biggest Fall: Austin down 7
BIAS RATINGS
No site can be perfectly on average all the time, every site will naturally have a bias for or against all teams.
| MOST / LEAST BIAS | VS | FOR |
|---|---|---|
| Jeff Sagarin | STL | TFC |
| FiveThirtyEight | STL | LAG |
| Who Scored | PHI | STL |
| ESPN | NYFC | ORL |
| Massey | AUS | CHI |
| Sonny Moore | CIN | COL |
| Versus Sports Simulator | SEA | MTL |
| Betting Odds | STL | LAG |
| MLS | MTL | CLB |
| Simmons Ratings | SJE | MTL |
| NYRB | STL | |
| Soccer America | LAG | STL |
| Dratings | STL | LAG |
| 3rd Degree | ATL | ORL |
| MLS Network | MIN | ORL |
| Broadway Sports | POR | CHI |
