Wasatch Soccer SentinelSites are dwindling! Only 4 of the 7 sites published by the deadline this week. One did publish late last week so totals were changed slightly. I started the season doing my own before finding what I hoped was enough to make the averages balance out; but I may need to either add my own back into the mix or just stop doing the averages comletely.
Now on to the rankings. As always, if you come across a site that I’ve not included please send me their link!
Sites Used
- Five Thirty Eight (season projected points)
- NWSL
- Reddit NWSL - No ranking wk 6
- Philly Soccer Page
- MLS Multiplex - No ranking wk 6
- Backline Soccer
- Pro Soccer USA - No ranking wk 5-6
You may notice the list includes several ‘analytic’ sites; they serve to function as a stable counterbalance to the rest which are based more on personal opinions, and those done by ‘team’ blogs’. There are also included sites that some will argue are really ‘prediction rankings’ - but in reality isn’t that what a Power Ranking is (see the quote at the top).
All the averages use the Olympic method (I.E. Truncated Mean value) of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and then averaging the rest to reduce bias.
| Wk 16 | Wk 17 | Wk 19 | Team | W16 avg | W17 avg | W19 avg | Best | Worst | St. Dev | 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | 4 | Chicago Red Stars | 4.667 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 3 | 4 | 0.45 | 5.198 |
| 7 | 6 | 7 | Houston Dash | 6.667 | 6.167 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7.269 |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | North Carolina Courage | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.057 |
| 4 | 4 | 5 | Orlando Pride | 4.333 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 5 | 6 | 0.45 | 4.308 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | Portland Thorns | 2.667 | 2.5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0.71 | 3.303 |
| 2 | 2 | 2 | Seattle Reign | 2.333 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2 | 3 | 0.45 | 2.581 |
| 9 | 9 | 9 | Sky Blue FC | 9 | 9 | 8.8 | 8 | 9 | 0.45 | 8.552 |
| 6 | 7 | 6 | Utah Royals | 6.333 | 6.833 | 5.8 | 5 | 6 | 0.45 | 5.154 |
| 8 | 8 | 8 | Washington Spirit | 8 | 8 | 8.2 | 8 | 9 | 0.45 | 7.506 |
- Highest Standard Deviation: Chicago Red Stars, Orlando Pride at 1.41
- Lowest Standard Deviation: North Carolina Courage at 0
| Site | # Exact | 1 Off | 2 Off | 3 Off | 4+ Off |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FiveThirtyEight | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NWSL | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reddit /r/nwsl | NA | ||||
| Philly Soc Page | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MLS Multiplex | NA | ||||
| Backline | NA | ||||
| Stumptown Footy | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| RSL Soapbox | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Soc. Club Stat | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
- Best of the week: FiveThirtyEight with all 9 exactly on average.
- Worst of the week: Backline and NWSL both with 1 off by 3.
Site Bias
This table shows how far each team is from average listed by site. Negatives are better (higher on table), positives are worse (lower on table) than the season average from all sites. The further off a site is for each team may indicate how strongly biased they are.
| Team / Site | AVG | 538 | NWSL | Reddit /r/NWSL | Philly | MLS Multiplex | Backline | ST Foot | RSL SB | Soc. Club Stat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Red Stars | 5.198 | 0.112 | -0.378 | -0.278 | 0.332 | -0.998 | 0.252 | 0.582 | 0.392 | 0.182 |
| Houston Dash | 7.269 | 0.231 | -0.449 | 0.421 | 0.381 | 0.031 | 0.641 | -0.829 | -0.679 | -0.389 |
| North Carolina Courage | 1.057 | 0.073 | 0.003 | -0.057 | 0.183 | -0.057 | -0.057 | -0.057 | 0.183 | -0.057 |
| Orlando Pride | 4.308 | -0.678 | 0.512 | -0.228 | -0.658 | -0.108 | 0.692 | -1.198 | 0.452 | -0.808 |
| Portland Thorns | 3.303 | -0.113 | 0.287 | 0.077 | -1.363 | 0.597 | 0.427 | 0.697 | -0.013 | 0.827 |
| Seattle Reign | 2.581 | -0.141 | 0.129 | 0.189 | 1.009 | 0.219 | -0.311 | 0.199 | 0.069 | -0.451 |
| Sky Blue | 8.552 | 0.078 | 0.208 | 0.068 | -0.432 | 0.048 | -0.102 | 0.448 | -0.492 | 0.448 |
| Utah Royals | 5.154 | 0.226 | -0.034 | 0.386 | -0.214 | 0.946 | -0.604 | -0.044 | -0.864 | -0.154 |
| Washington Spirit | 7.506 | 0.304 | -0.326 | -0.656 | 0.674 | -0.606 | -0.866 | 0.274 | 0.554 | 0.494 |
| MAX | 8.552 | 0.304 | 0.512 | 0.421 | 1.009 | 0.946 | 0.692 | 0.697 | 0.554 | 0.827 |
| MIN | 1.057 | -0.678 | -0.449 | -0.656 | -1.363 | -0.998 | -0.866 | -1.198 | -0.864 | -0.808 |
| Team / Site | AVG | 538 | NWSL | Reddit /r/NWSL | Philly | MLS Multiplex | Backline | ST Foot | RSL SB | Soc. Club Stat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Red Stars | 5.198 | 5.31 | 4.82 | 4.92 | 5.53 | 4.2 | 5.45 | 5.78 | 5.59 | 5.38 |
| Houston Dash | 7.269 | 7.5 | 6.82 | 7.69 | 7.65 | 7.3 | 7.91 | 6.44 | 6.59 | 6.88 |
| North Carolina Courage | 1.057 | 1.13 | 1.06 | 1 | 1.24 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.24 | 1 |
| Orlando Pride | 4.308 | 3.63 | 4.82 | 4.08 | 3.65 | 4.2 | 5 | 3.11 | 4.76 | 3.5 |
| Portland Thorns | 3.303 | 3.19 | 3.59 | 3.38 | 1.94 | 3.9 | 3.73 | 4 | 3.29 | 4.13 |
| Seattle Reign | 2.581 | 2.44 | 2.71 | 2.77 | 3.59 | 2.8 | 2.27 | 2.78 | 2.65 | 2.13 |
| Sky Blue | 8.552 | 8.63 | 8.76 | 8.62 | 8.12 | 8.6 | 8.45 | 9 | 8.06 | 9 |
| Utah Royals | 5.154 | 5.38 | 5.12 | 5.54 | 4.94 | 6.1 | 4.55 | 5.11 | 4.29 | 5 |
| Washington Spirit | 7.506 | 7.81 | 7.18 | 6.85 | 8.18 | 6.9 | 6.64 | 7.78 | 8.06 | 8 |
